PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
Vs
45%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SV Darmstadt 98 win
45.4%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.11
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.57
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
3.80
Betano
3.70
Pinnacle
3.70
10Bet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Holstein Kiel win
28.3%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.03
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Betfair
3.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98

Avg scored 1.10
Avg conceded 1.80
Avg total 2.90
30-3avg 1.1avg 1.8avg total 2.911111202233312111102A·1. H·FC A·ARMH·HANA·SPVH·SV A·KARA·PREA·PREH·SC
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.371.801.001.401.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.691.501.921.151.461.85
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

Avg scored 1.50
Avg conceded 1.10
Avg total 2.60
30-3avg 1.5avg 1.1avg total 2.623320000213010201312H·1. A·VFLH·PREH·PREA·FORH·1. A·HERH·EINH·1. A·DYN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.201.001.271.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.211.471.301.101.111.89
vs Weaker (11)1.271.451.000.801.502.00
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Darmstadt 98) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
@ 1.17+0.5%
Under 1.5
19.6%
@ 4.66-0.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.89
BetVictor
4.75
Betano
4.65
888Sport
4.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.57-3.3%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 2.34+3.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.38-5.0%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.53+5.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
888Sport
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.47-3.0%
No
40.3%
@ 2.48+3.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
No
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 7.15+5.9%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.45+3.9%
1-0
7.6%@ 10.09+3.1%
2-0
7.3%@ 12.03+3.5%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.37+2.8%
0-0
6.4%@ 14.57+3.2%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.93+1.8%
0-1
5.6%@ 12.81+2.0%
SV Darmstadt 98 goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
01234
06.4%5.6%4.3%1.8%0.6%
17.6%12%7.2%3.1%1.0%
27.3%9.3%6.0%2.6%0.8%
34.1%5.2%3.3%1.4%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Darmstadt 98 goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Schalke 04
2.06
SV Elversberg
1.83
SC Paderborn 07
1.83
Hannover 96
1.72
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.61
Hertha BSC
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.31
1. FC Magdeburg
1.25
VfL Bochum
1.25
Dynamo Dresden
1.25
Arminia Bielefeld
1.17
Holstein Kiel
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.14
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.03
Preußen Münster
0.88
Preußen Münster
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.39 points better than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
SV Elversberg
1.89
Hannover 96
1.81
SC Paderborn 07
1.72
Dynamo Dresden
1.72
SV Darmstadt 98
1.64
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.64
Karlsruher SC
1.61
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Arminia Bielefeld
1.58
FC Schalke 04
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.42
VfL Bochum
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg
1.36
Holstein Kiel
1.25
Preußen Münster
1.12
Preußen Münster
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.97
Rot-Weiß Essen
0.50
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.39 goals better than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Schalke 04
0.89
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.00
SV Elversberg
1.11
Hertha BSC
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98
1.28
SC Paderborn 07
1.31
1. FC Nürnberg
1.33
Hannover 96
1.36
VfL Bochum
1.39
Holstein Kiel
1.39
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.39
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.50
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.64
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.64
Preußen Münster
1.79
Preußen Münster
1.79
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.82
Karlsruher SC
1.83
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.11 goals better than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
SV Elversberg
53%
SC Paderborn 07
53%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
Preußen Münster
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
FC Schalke 04
46%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Rot-Weiß Essen
39%
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.3 percentage points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average possession (51% vs 52%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98

For 4.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

160527575355735264811518712128128812169H·SC A·PREA·PREA·KARH·SV A·SPVH·HANA·ARMH·FC A·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

7022141421322225212134553542734H·SC A·PREA·PREA·KARH·SV A·SPVH·HANA·ARMH·FC A·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.6

⚠️ Fouls

310111210111011108101910119111610151610623212118292120263116H·SC A·PREA·PREA·KARH·SV A·SPVH·HANA·ARMH·FC A·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

For 6.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

1609310645355371131133271121698510141458A·DYNH·1. H·EINA·HERH·1. A·FORH·PREH·PREA·VFLH·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.2

🟨 Cards

1103222324421423333653554583666118A·DYNH·1. H·EINA·HERH·1. A·FORH·PREH·PREA·VFLH·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.3 · Total 26.3

⚠️ Fouls

330171413111312156991313151215122211181331242521182627273331A·DYNH·1. H·EINA·HERH·1. A·FORH·PREH·PREA·VFLH·1.
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.510.14.24.04.423.724.223.1
vs Stronger (1)9.09.0-6.06.0-30.030.0-
vs Similar (42)10.310.410.14.14.04.124.024.523.4
vs Weaker (7)10.711.710.04.73.35.821.020.321.5
% over line54%52%56%62%56%68%68%76%60%
% under line46%48%44%38%44%32%32%24%40%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.59.85.44.86.026.425.827.0
vs Stronger (4)9.54.011.33.54.03.318.817.019.3
vs Similar (33)9.59.79.35.64.86.527.026.727.3
vs Weaker (13)12.214.210.45.54.86.127.224.329.7
% over line54%48%60%80%80%80%82%80%84%
% under line46%52%40%20%20%20%18%20%16%
This opponent (SV Darmstadt 98) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.5
VfL Osnabrück
11.2
VfL Bochum
10.6
Dynamo Dresden
10.6
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
Holstein Kiel
10.2
Arminia Bielefeld
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.1
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.5
Karlsruher SC
9.5
1. FC Heidenheim
9.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.2
1. FC Nürnberg
5.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
Hannover 96
4.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.7
VfL Bochum
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Hertha BSC
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.5
Arminia Bielefeld
4.5
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
VfL Wolfsburg
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Hannover 96
26.6
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Arminia Bielefeld
26.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.7
VfL Osnabrück
25.5
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.8
Hertha BSC
23.8
SV Darmstadt 98
23.7
Dynamo Dresden
23.5
Karlsruher SC
23.2
VfL Bochum
23.2
1. FC Heidenheim
20.7
VfL Wolfsburg
20.6
FC St. Pauli
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
78.7%
Under 3.5
21.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 21.5 fouls81.7%-------
Over 1.580.4%1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+0.5%
Over 3.5 cards78.7%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€201m
HB (35)
€60m
H9 (32)
€51m
VB (32)
€47m
HK (34)
€38m
KS (27)
€36m
SD9 (24)
€32m
SGF (35)
€27m
EB (29)
€23m
AB (28)
€18m
EC (31)
€8m
VO (25)
€8m
SV Darmstadt 98's squad is €6m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€32m vs €38m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (9)
€78m
VB (10)
€19m
SD9 (9)
€17m
KS (8)
€16m
HB (7)
€14m
H9 (10)
€13m
SGF (9)
€12m
HK (8)
€10m
EB (11)
€9m
AB (12)
€8m
VO (11)
€4m
EC (12)
€3m
SV Darmstadt 98's attack is €6m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€17m vs €10m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (10)
€27m
H9 (11)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
VB (9)
€19m
HK (9)
€12m
SD9 (5)
€8m
SGF (10)
€7m
KS (8)
€5m
EB (5)
€4m
AB (4)
€2m
EC (6)
€2m
VO (5)
€1m
SV Darmstadt 98's midfield is €4m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€8m vs €12m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (18)
€98m
HB (18)
€20m
HK (17)
€15m
KS (11)
€15m
H9 (11)
€13m
VB (13)
€10m
EB (13)
€9m
SGF (16)
€9m
SD9 (10)
€8m
AB (12)
€7m
EC (13)
€4m
VO (9)
€3m
SV Darmstadt 98's defence is €8m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€8m vs €15m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel · H/A from SD9
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26HSD9 Vs Holstein Kiel2-0
04/10/25AHolstein Kiel Vs SD91-1
30/04/23AHolstein Kiel Vs SD90-3
21/10/22HSD9 Vs Holstein Kiel1-1
02/04/22HSD9 Vs Holstein Kiel3-1
23/10/21AHolstein Kiel Vs SD91-1
23/05/21AHolstein Kiel Vs SD92-3
24/01/21HSD9 Vs Holstein Kiel0-2

SV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HSD9 Vs SC Paderborn 070-2
10/05/26APreußen Münster Vs SD91-1
10/05/26APreußen Münster Vs SD91-1
03/05/26AKarlsruher SC Vs SD92-1
25/04/26HSD9 Vs SV Elversberg3-3
19/04/26ASpVgg Greuther Fürth Vs SD93-2
11/04/26HSD9 Vs Hannover 960-2
04/04/26AArminia Bielefeld Vs SD92-1
21/03/26HSD9 Vs FC Schalke 041-1
13/03/26A1. FC Magdeburg Vs SD91-1

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ADynamo Dresden Vs HK2-1
09/05/26HHK Vs 1. FC Magdeburg1-3
02/05/26HHK Vs Eintracht Braunschweig2-0
25/04/26AHertha BSC Vs HK0-1
17/04/26HHK Vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern3-0
10/04/26AFortuna Düsseldorf Vs HK1-2
05/04/26HHK Vs Preußen Münster0-0
05/04/26HHK Vs Preußen Münster0-0
22/03/26AVfL Bochum Vs HK2-3
14/03/26HHK Vs 1. FC Nürnberg2-3

📊 8. Overall Statistics

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDL1.46
HomeWDLDL2.12
AwayLLLDD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%64%12%
AVG goals2.902.842.96
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Scored1.541.801.28
Conceded1.361.041.68
BTTS60%40%80%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Failed to Score18%24%12%
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.10
HomeDDWWL1.12
AwayLWWWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.822.682.96
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Scored1.261.281.24
Conceded1.561.401.72
BTTS64%56%72%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Failed to Score18%24%12%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026-27 full table · SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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