PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
Vs
45%
24%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karlsruher SC win
44.6%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.74
Edge
+10.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
2.85
Bet365
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.73
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
3.98
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.80
Arminia Bielefeld win
31.8%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.24
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.25

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Karlsruher SCKarlsruher SC

Avg scored 1.60
Avg conceded 2.00
Avg total 3.60
40-4avg 1.6avg 2.0avg total 3.633033101410313212212H·DYNA·1. H·SPVA·FC H·ARMA·SV H·HANH·SV A·SC H·VFL
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.031.931.861.312.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.572.181.931.861.212.50
vs Weaker (2)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld

Avg scored 2.00
Avg conceded 1.90
Avg total 3.90
60-6avg 2.0avg 1.9avg total 3.922132114113232110261H·SC A·SV H·SV A·KARH·1. A·PREA·PREH·VFLA·1. H·HER
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.601.861.211.191.94
vs Stronger (5)2.002.202.001.332.003.50
vs Similar (23)1.351.431.901.100.921.69
vs Weaker (2)2.002.001.002.003.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlsruher SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
@ 1.13+5.7%
Under 1.5
12.0%
@ 5.27-5.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.38
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.2%
@ 1.47+5.9%
Under 2.5
30.8%
@ 2.54-5.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.52
888Sport
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
888Sport
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
@ 2.21+5.3%
Under 3.5
52.2%
@ 1.64-5.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Both teams to score
Yes
69.7%
@ 1.42+4.4%
No
30.3%
@ 2.68-4.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
888Sport
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%@ 7.58+3.7%
2-1
8.6%@ 9.79+3.9%
1-2
7.2%@ 8.89+2.0%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.51+2.6%
3-1
5.6%@ 17.97+3.0%
2-0
5.3%@ 16.53+2.5%
1-0
4.6%@ 12.85+1.0%
3-2
4.6%@ 19.42+2.2%
Karlsruher SC goals ↓
Arminia Bielefeld goals →
01234
03.7%3.7%3.7%2.0%0.8%
14.6%9.8%7.2%3.9%1.6%
25.3%8.6%7.0%3.8%1.6%
33.4%5.6%4.6%2.5%1.0%
41.7%2.7%2.2%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karlsruher SC goals (down), columns = Arminia Bielefeld goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Schalke 04
2.06
SV Elversberg
1.83
SC Paderborn 07
1.83
Hannover 96
1.72
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.61
Hertha BSC
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.31
1. FC Magdeburg
1.25
VfL Bochum
1.25
Dynamo Dresden
1.25
Arminia Bielefeld
1.17
Holstein Kiel
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.14
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.03
Preußen Münster
0.88
Preußen Münster
0.88
Karlsruher SC is 0.22 points better than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
SV Elversberg
1.89
Hannover 96
1.81
SC Paderborn 07
1.72
Dynamo Dresden
1.72
SV Darmstadt 98
1.64
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.64
Karlsruher SC
1.61
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Arminia Bielefeld
1.58
FC Schalke 04
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.42
VfL Bochum
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg
1.36
Holstein Kiel
1.25
Preußen Münster
1.12
Preußen Münster
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.97
Rot-Weiß Essen
0.50
Karlsruher SC is 0.03 goals better than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Schalke 04
0.89
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.00
SV Elversberg
1.11
Hertha BSC
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98
1.28
SC Paderborn 07
1.31
1. FC Nürnberg
1.33
Hannover 96
1.36
VfL Bochum
1.39
Holstein Kiel
1.39
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.39
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.50
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.64
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.64
Preußen Münster
1.79
Preußen Münster
1.79
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.82
Karlsruher SC
1.83
Karlsruher SC is 0.31 goals worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
SV Elversberg
53%
SC Paderborn 07
53%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
Preußen Münster
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
FC Schalke 04
46%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Rot-Weiß Essen
39%
Karlsruher SC is 3.5 percentage points worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of average possession (48% vs 52%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Karlsruher SCKarlsruher SC

For 4.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.2

🚩 Corners

17011214533212413323425751358531757712H·VFLA·SC H·SV H·HANA·SV H·ARMA·FC H·SPVA·1. H·DYN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

60245121112113413126532134542H·VFLA·SC H·SV H·HANA·SV H·ARMA·FC H·SPVA·1. H·DYN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.8

⚠️ Fouls

2207810881013388911813166148101015181816162021222220H·VFLA·SC H·SV H·HANA·SV H·ARMA·FC H·SPVA·1. H·DYN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Arminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld

For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

1709264821717221348419411110108841712105H·HERA·1. H·VFLA·PREA·PREH·1. A·KARH·SV A·SV H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

70352332112251323523333715H·HERA·1. H·VFLA·PREA·PREH·1. A·KARH·SV A·SV H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.7

⚠️ Fouls

34014613216149179171213119101677141220342026262520261426H·HERA·1. H·VFLA·PREA·PREH·1. A·KARH·SV A·SV H·SC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Karlsruher SCKarlsruher SC

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.79.24.65.24.023.225.121.1
vs Stronger (1)5.0-5.06.0-6.029.0-29.0
vs Similar (42)9.29.78.64.55.13.822.324.220.1
vs Weaker (7)11.79.313.55.06.04.227.432.024.0
% over line42%42%42%60%65%54%54%65%42%
% under line58%58%58%40%35%46%46%35%58%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.19.810.54.44.44.426.025.826.3
vs Stronger (9)10.08.211.44.63.85.224.823.825.6
vs Similar (39)10.19.810.44.34.24.326.125.826.5
vs Weaker (2)11.515.08.06.09.03.030.034.026.0
% over line58%56%60%62%56%68%82%76%88%
% under line42%44%40%38%44%32%18%24%12%
This opponent (Karlsruher SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.5
VfL Osnabrück
11.2
VfL Bochum
10.6
Dynamo Dresden
10.6
Hannover 96
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
Holstein Kiel
10.2
Arminia Bielefeld
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.1
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.5
Karlsruher SC
9.5
1. FC Heidenheim
9.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.2
1. FC Nürnberg
5.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
Hannover 96
4.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.7
VfL Bochum
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Hertha BSC
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.5
Arminia Bielefeld
4.5
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
VfL Wolfsburg
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Hannover 96
26.6
Holstein Kiel
26.4
Arminia Bielefeld
26.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.7
VfL Osnabrück
25.5
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.8
Hertha BSC
23.8
SV Darmstadt 98
23.7
Dynamo Dresden
23.5
Karlsruher SC
23.2
VfL Bochum
23.2
1. FC Heidenheim
20.7
VfL Wolfsburg
20.6
FC St. Pauli
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.5%
Under 3.5
32.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.6%
Under 21.5
27.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.588.0%1.13
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+5.7%
Over 21.5 fouls72.6%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€201m
HB (35)
€60m
H9 (32)
€51m
VB (32)
€47m
HK (34)
€38m
KS (27)
€36m
SD9 (24)
€32m
SGF (35)
€27m
EB (29)
€23m
AB (28)
€18m
EC (31)
€8m
VO (25)
€8m
Karlsruher SC's squad is €19m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€36m vs €18m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (9)
€78m
VB (10)
€19m
SD9 (9)
€17m
KS (8)
€16m
HB (7)
€14m
H9 (10)
€13m
SGF (9)
€12m
HK (8)
€10m
EB (11)
€9m
AB (12)
€8m
VO (11)
€4m
EC (12)
€3m
Karlsruher SC's attack is €8m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€16m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (10)
€27m
H9 (11)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
VB (9)
€19m
HK (9)
€12m
SD9 (5)
€8m
SGF (10)
€7m
KS (8)
€5m
EB (5)
€4m
AB (4)
€2m
EC (6)
€2m
VO (5)
€1m
Karlsruher SC's midfield is €3m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€5m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (18)
€98m
HB (18)
€20m
HK (17)
€15m
KS (11)
€15m
H9 (11)
€13m
VB (13)
€10m
EB (13)
€9m
SGF (16)
€9m
SD9 (10)
€8m
AB (12)
€7m
EC (13)
€4m
VO (9)
€3m
Karlsruher SC's defence is €8m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€15m vs €7m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld · H/A from KS
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/26HKS Vs Arminia Bielefeld4-1
08/11/25AArminia Bielefeld Vs KS4-0
16/04/23HKS Vs Arminia Bielefeld4-2
07/10/22AArminia Bielefeld Vs KS1-2
21/06/20HKS Vs Arminia Bielefeld3-3
06/12/19AArminia Bielefeld Vs KS2-2
29/01/17HKS Vs Arminia Bielefeld3-2
07/08/16AArminia Bielefeld Vs KS0-0

Karlsruher SCKarlsruher SC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HKS Vs VfL Bochum1-2
08/05/26ASC Paderborn 07 Vs KS2-2
03/05/26HKS Vs SV Darmstadt 982-1
25/04/26HKS Vs Hannover 961-3
17/04/26ASV Elversberg Vs KS3-0
10/04/26HKS Vs Arminia Bielefeld4-1
05/04/26AFC Schalke 04 Vs KS1-0
20/03/26HKS Vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth3-1
15/03/26A1. FC Kaiserslautern Vs KS3-0
08/03/26HKS Vs Dynamo Dresden3-3

Arminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HAB Vs Hertha BSC6-1
08/05/26A1. FC Kaiserslautern Vs AB2-0
02/05/26HAB Vs VfL Bochum1-1
25/04/26APreußen Münster Vs AB2-3
25/04/26APreußen Münster Vs AB2-3
18/04/26HAB Vs 1. FC Nürnberg1-1
10/04/26AKarlsruher SC Vs AB4-1
04/04/26HAB Vs SV Darmstadt 982-1
21/03/26ASV Elversberg Vs AB3-1
14/03/26HAB Vs SC Paderborn 072-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.44
HomeWWLWL1.92
AwayWLLLD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%58%21%
AVG goals3.183.233.12
Over 2.5 %70%69%71%
Scored1.521.851.17
Conceded1.661.381.96
BTTS58%65%50%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Failed to Score26%12%42%
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
Germany: 2. Bundesliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.12
HomeDWDDW1.32
AwayLLWWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.303.243.36
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Scored1.601.841.36
Conceded1.701.402.00
BTTS72%76%68%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Failed to Score18%12%24%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026-27 full table · Karlsruher SC and Arminia Bielefeld highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

← all matches