PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
Vs
65%
22%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Willem II
Willem II
Netherlands: Eredivisie
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

GO Ahead Eagles win
65.0%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Dafabet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
888Sport
1.65
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.04
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
4.24
1xBet
4.22
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Willem II win
12.8%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.70
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
5.08
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Pinnacle
4.94
Betano
4.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 3.10
60-6avg 1.7avg 1.4avg total 3.110146002500000221412A·EXCH·TWEH·NACA·UTRH·PECA·GROH·AZ A·SPAH·PSVA·NEC
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.601.871.470.871.73
vs Stronger (16)0.812.060.862.140.782.00
vs Similar (11)1.911.182.291.001.251.50
vs Weaker (3)2.330.676.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Willem IIWillem II

Avg scored 1.60
Avg conceded 0.60
Avg total 2.20
30-3avg 1.6avg 0.6avg total 2.210213021101110201221A·RODH·ALMH·JONA·DORA·WAAH·WAAA·ALMH·ALMH·FC A·FC
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.771.380.811.930.71
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.500.50--
vs Similar (24)1.540.791.460.851.640.73
vs Weaker (4)2.750.752.001.003.000.67
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
@ 1.16-2.1%
Under 1.5
21.8%
@ 4.73+2.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.91
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
888Sport
4.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.57-6.2%
Under 2.5
46.5%
@ 2.34+6.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.3%
@ 2.40-7.6%
Under 3.5
68.7%
@ 1.52+7.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
888Sport
2.40
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
@ 1.60-9.3%
No
51.4%
@ 2.21+9.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Unibet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%@ 8.73+7.0%
1-0
11.1%@ 8.31+5.7%
1-1
10.6%@ 7.56+4.6%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.53+3.7%
3-0
8.2%@ 12.61+4.7%
0-0
6.9%@ 13.99+3.7%
3-1
6.6%@ 11.21+2.5%
4-0
4.2%@ 23.80+2.3%
GO Ahead Eagles goals ↓
Willem II goals →
01234
06.9%3.8%1.9%0.5%0.1%
111%11%3.8%1.0%0.2%
212%9.7%3.9%1.0%0.2%
38.2%6.6%2.6%0.7%0.1%
44.2%3.3%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GO Ahead Eagles goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Excelsior
1.12
PEC Zwolle
1.09
Telstar
1.09
FC Volendam
0.94
NAC Breda
0.91
Heracles
0.56
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Telstar
1.44
Groningen
1.40
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
NAC Breda
1.06
FC Volendam
1.03
Heracles
1.03
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
FC Volendam
1.62
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.66
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Heracles
2.50
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
NAC Breda
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
FC Volendam
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heracles
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles

For 5.2 · Against 7.1 · Total 12.3

🚩 Corners

1704138486510585852396536171214151313712119A·NECH·PSVA·SPAH·AZ A·GROH·PECA·UTRH·NACH·TWEA·EXC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

70216121112111134113731312451A·NECA·SPAH·AZ H·PECA·UTRH·TWEA·EXCH·HERA·FEYH·HEE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 17.4

⚠️ Fouls

2508129710119135591679838861120162122102516111617A·NECH·PSVA·SPAH·AZ A·GROH·PECA·UTRH·NACH·TWEA·EXC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Willem IIWillem II

For 5.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.1

🚩 Corners

160748847833873217576581116111111103121313A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVA·FC H·DENA·EMM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

6024132221311315136422344613A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVH·DENA·EMMH·ADO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

3407147105916109129176813718168721171426212614203415A·DORH·JONH·ALMA·RODH·JONH·DE A·MVVA·FC H·DENA·EMM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.111.011.13.32.83.719.019.618.4
vs Stronger (25)11.010.511.53.53.83.219.420.418.3
vs Similar (19)11.311.311.22.81.93.618.519.217.8
vs Weaker (6)10.813.09.84.21.05.818.716.020.0
% over line60%67%54%38%29%46%24%29%19%
% under line40%33%46%62%71%54%76%71%81%
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Willem IIWillem II

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.510.610.42.62.72.521.622.221.0
vs Stronger (6)10.210.310.02.72.33.020.319.721.0
vs Similar (38)10.811.110.52.52.72.322.022.821.1
vs Weaker (6)9.58.710.33.33.03.720.821.720.0
% over line59%59%59%32%32%32%52%59%45%
% under line41%41%41%68%68%68%48%41%55%
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
GO Ahead Eagles
11.1
Telstar
11.1
ADO Den Haag
10.8
Willem II
10.7
Sparta Rotterdam
10.6
Fortuna Sittard
10.5
Heerenveen
10.2
NEC Nijmegen
10.1
Ajax
10.0
Groningen
10.0
Cambuur
9.9
AZ Alkmaar
9.9
Excelsior
9.7
Feyenoord
9.7
Utrecht
9.7
Twente
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
AZ Alkmaar
4.1
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
ADO Den Haag
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Cambuur
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Utrecht
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Telstar
3.5
Sparta Rotterdam
3.5
Groningen
3.4
Twente
3.4
Excelsior
3.3
PEC Zwolle
3.2
Heerenveen
3.0
Willem II
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
25.5
Fortuna Sittard
24.2
NEC Nijmegen
22.9
PEC Zwolle
22.9
Feyenoord
22.9
Ajax
22.6
AZ Alkmaar
22.5
Utrecht
22.4
Telstar
21.6
Willem II
21.3
Twente
21.2
Heerenveen
21.0
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
19.7
Excelsior
19.6
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
67.4%
@ 1.42+2.7%
Under 9.5
32.6%
@ 2.60-2.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.42
Under
Unibet
2.60
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
33.1%
Under 21.5
66.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.578.2%1.16
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-2.1%
Under 3.5 cards77.9%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (50)
€323m
AJA (62)
€260m
FEY (32)
€216m
AA (60)
€205m
UTR (51)
€88m
TWE (27)
€84m
NN (28)
€62m
HEE (23)
€49m
GAE (31)
€36m
SR (26)
€32m
GRO (23)
€32m
PZ (29)
€23m
FS (28)
€22m
EXC (28)
€19m
WI (26)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
TEL (24)
€12m
ADH (25)
€11m
GO Ahead Eagles's squad is €22m more valuable than Willem II's (€36m vs €14m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (19)
€139m
AJA (24)
€119m
AA (22)
€100m
FEY (13)
€78m
UTR (19)
€30m
NN (13)
€27m
TWE (10)
€26m
HEE (10)
€22m
GAE (12)
€17m
SR (9)
€13m
GRO (8)
€11m
WI (12)
€9m
PZ (12)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (7)
€7m
ADH (12)
€5m
CAM (10)
€4m
TEL (8)
€4m
GO Ahead Eagles's attack is €7m more valuable than Willem II's (€17m vs €9m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (10)
€77m
AJA (13)
€53m
FEY (4)
€51m
AA (12)
€43m
NN (6)
€26m
UTR (10)
€24m
TWE (4)
€13m
GRO (3)
€9m
HEE (3)
€6m
FS (7)
€6m
GAE (6)
€6m
TEL (7)
€5m
PZ (6)
€5m
SR (4)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
EXC (4)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
WI (3)
€1m
GO Ahead Eagles's midfield is €4m more valuable than Willem II's (€6m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (21)
€108m
FEY (15)
€87m
AJA (25)
€87m
AA (26)
€62m
TWE (13)
€45m
UTR (22)
€34m
HEE (10)
€20m
SR (13)
€16m
GAE (13)
€14m
GRO (12)
€11m
PZ (11)
€9m
NN (9)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (14)
€8m
CAM (11)
€6m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
TEL (9)
€3m
GO Ahead Eagles's defence is €10m more valuable than Willem II's (€14m vs €4m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II · H/A from GAE
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25HGAE Vs Willem II1-0
18/08/24AWillem II Vs GAE2-0
08/04/22HGAE Vs Willem II4-0
27/11/21AWillem II Vs GAE0-1
16/04/17AWillem II Vs GAE2-0
25/11/16HGAE Vs Willem II0-1

GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ANEC Nijmegen Vs GAE2-1
10/05/26HGAE Vs PSV Eindhoven1-4
03/05/26ASparta Rotterdam Vs GAE2-2
23/04/26HGAE Vs AZ Alkmaar0-0
11/04/26AGroningen Vs GAE0-0
05/04/26HGAE Vs PEC Zwolle5-0
22/03/26AUtrecht Vs GAE2-0
15/03/26HGAE Vs NAC Breda6-0
08/03/26HGAE Vs Twente1-4
01/03/26AExcelsior Vs GAE0-1

Willem IIWillem II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AFC Volendam Vs WI1-2
20/05/26HWI Vs FC Volendam1-2
16/05/26HWI Vs Almere City FC2-0
13/05/26AAlmere City FC Vs WI0-1
09/05/26HWI Vs Waalwijk1-1
05/05/26AWaalwijk Vs WI0-1
24/04/26ADordrecht Vs WI1-2
17/04/26HWI Vs Jong AZ3-0
12/04/26HWI Vs Almere City FC2-1
06/04/26ARoda Vs WI0-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
Netherlands: Eredivisie
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL1.04
HomeLWWDL1.38
AwayWLDDL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%33%12%
AVG goals3.043.083.00
Over 2.5 %60%67%54%
Scored1.401.621.19
Conceded1.641.461.81
BTTS58%50%65%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Failed to Score26%25%27%
Willem II
Willem II
Netherlands: Eredivisie
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.66
HomeWWDWL1.52
AwayWWWWW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%44%52%
AVG goals2.542.282.80
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Scored1.441.281.60
Conceded1.101.001.20
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Failed to Score12%16%8%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026-27 full table · GO Ahead Eagles and Willem II highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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