This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Avg scored2.00
Avg conceded1.60
Avg total3.60
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.50
1.93
1.40
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.75
3.00
1.50
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.31
1.77
1.38
1.77
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
@ 1.17+6.1%
Under 1.5
13.6%
@ 4.75-6.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.88
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
@ 1.56+6.1%
Under 2.5
33.8%
@ 2.35-6.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
@ 2.38+5.1%
Under 3.5
55.6%
@ 1.53-5.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
888Sport
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Both teams to score
Yes
67.9%
@ 1.46+4.7%
No
32.1%
@ 2.50-4.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
No
1xBet
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 7.03+4.1%
1-2
8.3%@ 9.62+3.6%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.11+3.1%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.58+2.7%
0-2
4.9%@ 15.08+1.9%
1-3
4.8%@ 17.83+2.2%
0-1
4.7%@ 11.62+0.8%
2-0
4.7%@ 13.50+1.3%
Vitesse goals ↓
Waalwijk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.7%
4.9%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.6%
11%
8.3%
4.8%
2.1%
2
4.7%
8.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.6%
4.5%
3.9%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.1%
1.9%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vitesse goals (down), columns = Waalwijk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
VVV Venlo
1.18
Emmen
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Vitesse is 0.02 points better than Waalwijk in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Vitesse is 0.08 goals worse than Waalwijk in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
Waalwijk
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Vitesse is 0.05 goals better than Waalwijk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Vitesse is 4.1 percentage points worse than Waalwijk in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vitesse
For 5.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waalwijk
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
4.3
4.9
3.8
26.7
27.2
26.1
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
9.5
10.5
3.0
5.0
1.7
23.3
25.0
22.2
vs Similar (34)
9.8
9.9
9.7
4.7
4.8
4.6
27.5
27.5
27.5
vs Weaker (6)
9.5
9.3
9.7
4.5
5.3
3.7
27.8
28.7
27.0
% over line
54%
58%
50%
62%
76%
48%
85%
88%
83%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
38%
24%
52%
15%
12%
17%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waalwijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
2.6
2.5
2.8
22.6
21.3
23.9
vs Stronger (13)
10.6
10.8
10.4
2.2
2.5
1.9
20.5
19.7
21.3
vs Similar (37)
10.5
10.8
10.1
2.8
2.5
3.1
23.5
21.9
25.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
61%
52%
32%
24%
40%
48%
39%
57%
% under line
43%
39%
48%
68%
76%
60%
52%
61%
43%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
De Graafschap
11.9
Den Bosch
11.8
FC OSS
11.8
Dordrecht
11.3
Jong PSV U21
11.2
FC Eindhoven
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.8
Jong AZ
10.8
Almere City FC
10.8
Emmen
10.7
FC Volendam
10.6
MVV
10.5
Waalwijk
10.4
Heracles
10.4
Jong Ajax
10.3
VVV Venlo
10.3
Roda
10.3
Vitesse
10.1
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dordrecht
4.5
Vitesse
4.4
FC OSS
4.4
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
FC Volendam
3.6
Emmen
3.6
Heracles
3.5
NAC Breda
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
VVV Venlo
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.3
FC Eindhoven
3.3
MVV
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
Waalwijk
3.1
Roda
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.1
Almere City FC
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.9
Vitesse
26.4
Helmond Sport
25.3
Jong Utrecht
25.3
Dordrecht
25.3
Jong Ajax
24.3
Roda
24.3
Emmen
24.2
Jong PSV U21
24.2
Heracles
24.2
Jong AZ
23.3
VVV Venlo
23.3
FC Eindhoven
23.3
Den Bosch
23.1
MVV
22.8
NAC Breda
22.5
De Graafschap
22.5
Waalwijk
22.3
Almere City FC
20.6
FC Volendam
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.5%
Under 21.5
16.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
86.4%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
+6.1%
Over 21.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (32)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
NB (26)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
Vitesse's squad is €1m less valuable than Waalwijk's (€6m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HER (14)
€7m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
Vitesse and Waalwijk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
Vitesse and Waalwijk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (13)
€7m
DOR (14)
€6m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
Vitesse's defence is €1m less valuable than Waalwijk's (€2m vs €4m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Vitesse vs Waalwijk · H/A from VIT
Date
H/A
Game
Score
10/12/25
H
VIT Vs Waalwijk
2-1
16/09/25
A
Waalwijk Vs VIT
1-1
09/03/24
A
Waalwijk Vs VIT
3-1
16/09/23
H
VIT Vs Waalwijk
0-2
01/04/23
A
Waalwijk Vs VIT
1-0
27/08/22
H
VIT Vs Waalwijk
2-2
20/03/22
H
VIT Vs Waalwijk
1-2
12/09/21
A
Waalwijk Vs VIT
1-2
Vitesse
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
24/04/26
A
Cambuur Vs VIT
2-1
17/04/26
H
VIT Vs MVV
0-0
13/04/26
A
Jong Utrecht Vs VIT
0-3
06/04/26
H
VIT Vs Jong Ajax
6-1
03/04/26
H
VIT Vs Emmen
3-3
20/03/26
A
Jong PSV U21 Vs VIT
0-2
16/03/26
A
Roda Vs VIT
0-1
13/03/26
H
VIT Vs Almere City FC
1-3
08/03/26
A
De Graafschap Vs VIT
1-4
27/02/26
H
VIT Vs Jong AZ
2-0
Waalwijk
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
09/05/26
A
Willem II Vs WAA
1-1
05/05/26
H
WAA Vs Willem II
0-1
01/05/26
H
WAA Vs Roda
1-1
28/04/26
A
Roda Vs WAA
1-1
24/04/26
H
WAA Vs Jong PSV U21
4-1
17/04/26
A
ADO Den Haag Vs WAA
5-1
10/04/26
H
WAA Vs Emmen
5-0
06/04/26
A
Helmond Sport Vs WAA
2-2
03/04/26
A
MVV Vs WAA
1-3
21/03/26
H
WAA Vs Den Bosch
2-3
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Vitesse
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DWWDL
1.34
Home
WLDWD
1.28
Away
WWWWL
1.40
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
36%
32%
40%
AVG goals
3.22
3.32
3.12
Over 2.5 %
70%
76%
64%
Scored
1.56
1.64
1.48
Conceded
1.66
1.68
1.64
BTTS
64%
76%
52%
Clean Sheet
18%
16%
20%
Failed to Score
24%
16%
32%
Waalwijk
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
WDDLD
1.38
Home
LWWDL
1.56
Away
WDLDD
1.20
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
36%
44%
28%
AVG goals
3.38
3.36
3.40
Over 2.5 %
66%
64%
68%
Scored
1.72
1.84
1.60
Conceded
1.66
1.52
1.80
BTTS
74%
72%
76%
Clean Sheet
16%
20%
12%
Failed to Score
14%
12%
16%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026-27 full table · Vitesse and Waalwijk highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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