PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
Vs
33%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Genk
Genk
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zulte Waregem win
32.7%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.14
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
3.62
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.54
Bet365
3.50
Genk win
38.9%
Avg Implied 43.8% · @ 2.11
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.18
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.10
Avg total 2.80
40-4avg 1.7avg 1.1avg total 2.812010210222120403221A·KV H·STAA·GENH·CHAH·CERA·DENA·RAAH·RAAA·CERH·DEN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.371.731.201.331.53
vs Stronger (11)1.641.912.001.671.202.20
vs Similar (11)1.181.271.001.001.331.50
vs Weaker (8)1.880.752.250.751.500.75
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GenkGenk

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 0.50
Avg total 1.40
30-3avg 0.9avg 0.5avg total 1.400211111023000002000H·OH A·KVCH·CHAH·STAA·CHAH·KVCA·STAH·ANTA·OH A·GEN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.471.071.731.60
vs Stronger (2)2.003.503.005.001.002.00
vs Similar (6)1.500.171.670.001.330.33
vs Weaker (22)1.591.451.271.001.911.91
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zulte Waregem) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
@ 1.23-0.0%
Under 1.5
24.3%
@ 3.83+0.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.85
888Sport
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.79-3.2%
Under 2.5
50.3%
@ 2.01+3.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 2.92-4.2%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.37+4.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
888Sport
2.90
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.65-1.0%
No
44.7%
@ 2.12+1.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
No
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
888Sport
2.10
William Hil
2.10

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.36+6.6%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.05+3.1%
0-1
8.5%@ 7.89+2.9%
0-0
8.2%@ 11.34+4.3%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.28+3.5%
1-0
7.6%@ 10.01+3.1%
0-2
6.8%@ 10.18+2.4%
2-0
5.6%@ 15.95+2.8%
Zulte Waregem goals ↓
Genk goals →
01234
08.2%8.5%6.8%3.2%1.1%
17.6%14%8.6%4.0%1.4%
25.6%7.8%5.5%2.5%0.9%
32.3%3.3%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zulte Waregem goals (down), columns = Genk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
Beerschot VA
1.00
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Dender
0.68
Patro Eisden
0.50
Liège
0.00
Zulte Waregem is 0.13 points worse than Genk in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.46).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Beerschot VA
1.50
Patro Eisden
1.50
Anderlecht
1.48
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
Charleroi
1.25
KVC Westerlo
1.25
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Dender
0.87
Liège
0.50
Zulte Waregem is 0.08 goals better than Genk in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Cercle Brugge
1.61
Dender
1.71
Patro Eisden
2.00
Beerschot VA
2.25
Liège
2.50
Zulte Waregem is 0.18 goals worse than Genk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Beerschot VA
64%
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
Liège
56%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Dender
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Patro Eisden
29%
Zulte Waregem is 9.7 percentage points worse than Genk in terms of average possession (48% vs 58%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem

For 5.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

140927656176283410623281111311881114859H·DENA·CERH·RAAA·RAAA·DENH·CERH·CHAA·GENH·STAA·KV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 2.9

🟨 Cards

6015111222312122216122253323H·DENA·CERH·RAAA·RAAA·DENH·CERH·CHAA·GENH·STAA·KV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.8

⚠️ Fouls

3108121213131511209121216791313109111320252831212816261924H·DENA·CERH·RAAA·RAAA·DENH·CERH·CHAA·GENH·STAA·KV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GenkGenk

For 6.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

1503344113456363132101733268149991511105A·GENA·OH H·ANTA·STAH·KVCA·CHAH·STAH·CHAA·KVCH·OH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

60422221122321121236223325235A·GENA·OH H·ANTA·STAH·KVCA·CHAH·STAH·CHAA·KVCH·OH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 8.7 · Total 21.6

⚠️ Fouls

2802081511881541291114135118121112928261619212518192321A·GENA·OH H·ANTA·STAH·KVCA·CHAH·STAH·CHAA·KVCH·OH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.79.23.73.83.624.224.623.9
vs Stronger (20)9.59.89.23.53.43.622.922.723.1
vs Similar (19)9.49.88.93.73.83.624.525.423.4
vs Weaker (11)9.59.49.74.24.63.826.226.625.8
% over line48%60%36%44%44%44%68%68%68%
% under line52%40%64%56%56%56%32%32%32%
This opponent (Genk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GenkGenk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.611.08.23.73.53.822.522.722.2
vs Stronger (3)10.012.06.05.76.05.022.024.018.0
vs Similar (13)9.613.28.03.42.23.924.322.825.0
vs Weaker (34)9.610.48.43.63.53.621.822.520.8
% over line48%65%29%46%42%50%58%58%58%
% under line52%35%71%54%58%50%42%42%42%
This opponent (Zulte Waregem) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Lommel United
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.8
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Charleroi
10.5
Cercle Brugge
10.3
KV Mechelen
10.3
Anderlecht
10.3
Gent
10.2
Kortrijk
10.1
Standard Liege
10.0
SK Beveren
9.8
St. Truiden
9.7
Genk
9.6
Zulte Waregem
9.5
RAAL La Louvière
9.4
Union St. Gilloise
9.2
Antwerp
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.8
OH Leuven
4.8
Antwerp
4.3
Standard Liege
4.2
Cercle Brugge
4.2
St. Truiden
4.1
SK Beveren
4.1
Kortrijk
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
KVC Westerlo
3.9
Lommel United
3.8
Genk
3.7
Zulte Waregem
3.7
Gent
3.6
RAAL La Louvière
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SK Beveren
25.9
OH Leuven
25.1
Anderlecht
24.9
Zulte Waregem
24.2
Antwerp
23.9
RAAL La Louvière
23.6
Lommel United
23.2
KVC Westerlo
23.0
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Genk
22.5
Standard Liege
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.6
Charleroi
21.6
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
Gent
21.4
Kortrijk
21.4
St. Truiden
21.2
Club Brugge KV
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.8%
Under 9.5
57.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.6%
Under 21.5
41.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.575.7%1.23
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
-0.0%
Under 3.572.2%1.37
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+4.2%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (33)
€274m
GEN (59)
€182m
USG (35)
€163m
AND (34)
€126m
ANT (35)
€97m
KW (33)
€66m
GEN (46)
€62m
SL (34)
€57m
ST (25)
€53m
KM (30)
€51m
CB (28)
€44m
CHA (58)
€44m
ZW (32)
€32m
RLL (28)
€22m
SB (26)
€15m
KOR (24)
€13m
LU (28)
€13m
Zulte Waregem's squad is €149m less valuable than Genk's (€32m vs €182m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (13)
€130m
GEN (26)
€106m
USG (12)
€59m
AND (11)
€46m
KW (13)
€32m
ST (11)
€29m
GEN (17)
€24m
ANT (11)
€17m
ZW (12)
€16m
SL (10)
€16m
CB (9)
€14m
KM (10)
€12m
CHA (19)
€11m
SB (12)
€8m
RLL (11)
€8m
LU (11)
€7m
KOR (10)
€6m
Zulte Waregem's attack is €89m less valuable than Genk's (€16m vs €106m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (11)
€69m
CBK (6)
€65m
AND (6)
€38m
ANT (9)
€24m
GEN (12)
€21m
GEN (8)
€20m
CHA (10)
€14m
KW (7)
€11m
ST (4)
€10m
CB (7)
€9m
SL (8)
€9m
ZW (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
RLL (6)
€5m
SB (4)
€2m
KOR (4)
€2m
LU (5)
€2m
Zulte Waregem's midfield is €12m less valuable than Genk's (€8m vs €20m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (14)
€79m
ANT (15)
€57m
GEN (25)
€56m
AND (17)
€42m
USG (12)
€35m
SL (16)
€32m
KM (13)
€32m
KW (13)
€23m
CB (12)
€22m
CHA (29)
€19m
GEN (17)
€16m
ST (10)
€13m
RLL (11)
€9m
ZW (13)
€8m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€4m
LU (12)
€4m
Zulte Waregem's defence is €48m less valuable than Genk's (€8m vs €56m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Zulte Waregem vs Genk · H/A from ZW
DateH/AGameScore
17/01/26HZW Vs Genk2-1
31/08/25AGenk Vs ZW3-2
14/01/23AGenk Vs ZW1-0
14/08/22HZW Vs Genk1-4
06/02/22AGenk Vs ZW2-0
31/10/21HZW Vs Genk2-6
27/01/21AGenk Vs ZW3-2
09/08/20HZW Vs Genk1-2

Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HZW Vs Dender2-1
01/05/26ACercle Brugge Vs ZW2-3
26/04/26HZW Vs RAAL La Louvière4-0
19/04/26ARAAL La Louvière Vs ZW0-2
12/04/26ADender Vs ZW1-2
04/04/26HZW Vs Cercle Brugge2-2
22/03/26HZW Vs Charleroi1-0
13/03/26AGent Vs ZW2-0
08/03/26HZW Vs Standard Liege0-1
28/02/26AKV Mechelen Vs ZW2-1

GenkGenk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/05/26AGent Vs GEN0-0
23/05/26AOH Leuven Vs GEN0-2
19/05/26HGEN Vs Antwerp0-0
16/05/26AStandard Liege Vs GEN0-0
10/05/26HGEN Vs KVC Westerlo3-0
02/05/26ACharleroi Vs GEN2-0
25/04/26HGEN Vs Standard Liege1-1
21/04/26HGEN Vs Charleroi1-1
18/04/26AKVC Westerlo Vs GEN1-2
12/04/26HGEN Vs OH Leuven0-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Zulte Waregem
Zulte Waregem
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.18
HomeLWDWW1.24
AwayLLWWW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.323.083.56
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Scored1.561.481.64
Conceded1.761.601.92
BTTS68%60%76%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Failed to Score20%20%20%
Genk
Genk
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.58
HomeDDDWD1.50
AwayWLDWD1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.742.423.08
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Scored1.441.311.58
Conceded1.301.121.50
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Failed to Score24%27%21%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026-27 full table · Zulte Waregem and Genk highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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