PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
Charleroi
Charleroi
Vs
52%
27%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
OL
OH Leuven
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Charleroi win
52.2%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.84
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Betano
1.85
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.38
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
3.62
Pinnacle
3.58
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.54
Bet365
3.50
OH Leuven win
20.4%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.12
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
4.38
1xBet
4.34
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CharleroiCharleroi

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 0.80
Avg total 2.00
20-2avg 1.2avg 0.8avg total 2.002211211202010011120A·KVCH·ANTH·STAA·GENA·OH H·GENA·ANTH·KVCH·OH A·STA
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.201.331.271.131.13
vs Stronger (9)1.221.221.401.001.001.50
vs Similar (15)1.401.271.711.571.121.00
vs Weaker (6)0.831.000.331.001.331.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OL
OH Leuven

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 2.60
30-3avg 0.9avg 1.7avg total 2.613000202023312301102H·STAA·GENA·ANTH·KVCH·CHAA·KVCA·STAH·ANTA·CHAH·GEN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.371.071.331.131.40
vs Stronger (22)1.091.321.201.201.001.42
vs Similar (8)1.121.500.801.601.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.34+3.2%
Under 1.5
27.3%
@ 3.05-3.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.29
Betano
3.20
888Sport
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 2.08+0.6%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.73-0.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.5%
@ 3.71-0.7%
Under 3.5
75.5%
@ 1.25+0.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Betano
3.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
@ 1.90+0.4%
No
51.0%
@ 1.80-0.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.91
No
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.18+5.8%
1-0
11.8%@ 5.96+4.3%
2-0
10.3%@ 7.82+4.7%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.87+3.8%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.26+3.9%
0-1
6.2%@ 9.64+1.6%
3-0
5.5%@ 14.41+2.4%
1-2
5.4%@ 13.05+2.0%
Charleroi goals ↓
OH Leuven goals →
01234
09.3%6.2%3.4%1.0%0.2%
112%13%5.4%1.7%0.4%
210%9.5%4.3%1.3%0.3%
35.5%5.0%2.3%0.7%0.2%
42.2%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charleroi goals (down), columns = OH Leuven goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
Beerschot VA
1.00
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Dender
0.68
Patro Eisden
0.50
Liège
0.00
Charleroi is 0.27 points better than OH Leuven in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Beerschot VA
1.50
Patro Eisden
1.50
Anderlecht
1.48
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
Charleroi
1.25
KVC Westerlo
1.25
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Dender
0.87
Liège
0.50
Charleroi is 0.23 goals better than OH Leuven in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.02).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Cercle Brugge
1.61
Dender
1.71
Patro Eisden
2.00
Beerschot VA
2.25
Liège
2.50
Charleroi is 0.25 goals better than OH Leuven in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Beerschot VA
64%
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
Liège
56%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Dender
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Patro Eisden
29%
Charleroi is 3.9 percentage points better than OH Leuven in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CharleroiCharleroi

For 5.7 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.6

🚩 Corners

2009614685343664110642955152013791011101110A·STAH·OH H·KVCA·ANTH·GENA·OH A·GENH·STAH·ANTA·KVC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

906332322211313232219552224553A·STAH·KVCA·ANTH·GENA·OH A·GENH·STAH·ANTA·KVCA·ZUL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

2601210981011101614111288111181214141022172126252019192624A·STAH·OH H·KVCA·ANTH·GENA·OH A·GENH·STAH·ANTA·KVC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

OL
OH Leuven

For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

2004461411173344684211237482012107101213511H·GENA·CHAH·ANTA·STAA·KVCH·CHAH·KVCA·ANTA·GENH·STA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

9021123221623236112225218592H·GENH·ANTA·STAA·KVCH·CHAH·KVCA·ANTA·GENH·ANTA·CHA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

290111589135125179812105131691271226171817262015292119H·GENA·CHAH·ANTA·STAA·KVCH·CHAH·KVCA·ANTA·GENH·STA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CharleroiCharleroi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.611.210.03.73.63.821.822.421.1
vs Stronger (10)9.69.49.83.33.63.020.721.220.2
vs Similar (27)10.010.89.44.44.44.422.423.121.8
vs Weaker (13)12.513.111.72.52.03.021.322.020.5
% over line60%62%58%48%44%52%54%54%54%
% under line40%38%42%52%56%48%46%46%46%
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OL
OH Leuven

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.111.111.14.64.84.425.125.424.9
vs Stronger (34)10.810.511.14.64.84.524.424.824.0
vs Similar (16)11.812.411.24.44.64.126.626.526.8
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line68%72%64%60%64%56%70%72%68%
% under line32%28%36%40%36%44%30%28%32%
This opponent (Charleroi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Lommel United
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.8
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Charleroi
10.5
Cercle Brugge
10.3
KV Mechelen
10.3
Anderlecht
10.3
Gent
10.2
Kortrijk
10.1
Standard Liege
10.0
SK Beveren
9.8
St. Truiden
9.7
Genk
9.6
Zulte Waregem
9.5
RAAL La Louvière
9.4
Union St. Gilloise
9.2
Antwerp
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.8
OH Leuven
4.8
Antwerp
4.3
Standard Liege
4.2
Cercle Brugge
4.2
St. Truiden
4.1
SK Beveren
4.1
Kortrijk
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
KVC Westerlo
3.9
Lommel United
3.8
Genk
3.7
Zulte Waregem
3.7
Gent
3.6
RAAL La Louvière
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SK Beveren
25.9
OH Leuven
25.1
Anderlecht
24.9
Zulte Waregem
24.2
Antwerp
23.9
RAAL La Louvière
23.6
Lommel United
23.2
KVC Westerlo
23.0
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Genk
22.5
Standard Liege
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.6
Charleroi
21.6
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
Gent
21.4
Kortrijk
21.4
St. Truiden
21.2
Club Brugge KV
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
68.1%
Under 9.5
31.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.8%
Under 21.5
38.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.575.5%1.25
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.7%
Over 1.572.7%1.34
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
+3.2%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (33)
€274m
GEN (59)
€182m
USG (35)
€163m
AND (34)
€126m
ANT (35)
€97m
KW (33)
€66m
GEN (46)
€62m
SL (34)
€57m
ST (25)
€53m
KM (30)
€51m
CB (28)
€44m
CHA (58)
€44m
ZW (32)
€32m
RLL (28)
€22m
SB (26)
€15m
KOR (24)
€13m
LU (28)
€13m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (13)
€130m
GEN (26)
€106m
USG (12)
€59m
AND (11)
€46m
KW (13)
€32m
ST (11)
€29m
GEN (17)
€24m
ANT (11)
€17m
ZW (12)
€16m
SL (10)
€16m
CB (9)
€14m
KM (10)
€12m
CHA (19)
€11m
SB (12)
€8m
RLL (11)
€8m
LU (11)
€7m
KOR (10)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (11)
€69m
CBK (6)
€65m
AND (6)
€38m
ANT (9)
€24m
GEN (12)
€21m
GEN (8)
€20m
CHA (10)
€14m
KW (7)
€11m
ST (4)
€10m
CB (7)
€9m
SL (8)
€9m
ZW (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
RLL (6)
€5m
SB (4)
€2m
KOR (4)
€2m
LU (5)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (14)
€79m
ANT (15)
€57m
GEN (25)
€56m
AND (17)
€42m
USG (12)
€35m
SL (16)
€32m
KM (13)
€32m
KW (13)
€23m
CB (12)
€22m
CHA (29)
€19m
GEN (17)
€16m
ST (10)
€13m
RLL (11)
€9m
ZW (13)
€8m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€4m
LU (12)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Charleroi vs OH Leuven · H/A from CHA
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/26HCHA Vs OH Leuven1-1
25/04/26AOH Leuven Vs CHA0-2
14/03/26HCHA Vs OH Leuven0-2
27/07/25AOH Leuven Vs CHA2-2
24/05/25HCHA Vs OH Leuven2-1
28/03/25AOH Leuven Vs CHA0-0
14/12/24AOH Leuven Vs CHA1-0
26/10/24HCHA Vs OH Leuven0-2

CharleroiCharleroi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AStandard Liege Vs CHA0-2
19/05/26HCHA Vs OH Leuven1-1
16/05/26HCHA Vs KVC Westerlo0-1
10/05/26AAntwerp Vs CHA0-1
02/05/26HCHA Vs Genk2-0
25/04/26AOH Leuven Vs CHA0-2
21/04/26AGenk Vs CHA1-1
18/04/26HCHA Vs Standard Liege1-2
10/04/26HCHA Vs Antwerp2-1
05/04/26AKVC Westerlo Vs CHA2-0

OL
OH Leuven

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HOL Vs Genk0-2
19/05/26ACharleroi Vs OL1-1
15/05/26HOL Vs Antwerp3-0
08/05/26AStandard Liege Vs OL2-1
02/05/26AKVC Westerlo Vs OL3-3
25/04/26HOL Vs Charleroi0-2
21/04/26HOL Vs KVC Westerlo0-2
18/04/26AAntwerp Vs OL2-0
12/04/26AGenk Vs OL0-0
04/04/26HOL Vs Standard Liege1-3

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Charleroi
Charleroi
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.38
HomeWLWLD1.44
AwayLDWWW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.622.922.32
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.381.601.16
Conceded1.241.321.16
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Failed to Score20%16%24%
OL
OH Leuven
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL0.96
HomeLLLWL0.92
AwayDLDLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%24%
AVG goals2.622.562.68
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.041.120.96
Conceded1.581.441.72
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Failed to Score34%36%32%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026-27 full table · Charleroi and OH Leuven highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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