PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Vs
36%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Thun
FC Thun
Switzerland: Super League
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Basel 1893 win
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
FC Thun win
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Basel 1893FC Basel 1893

Avg scored 1.10
Avg conceded 2.00
Avg total 3.10
40-4avg 1.1avg 2.0avg total 3.120331302310313041001A·FC H·BSCA·FC H·FC H·FC A·BSCH·FC A·FC A·SERH·LAU
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.671.121.251.292.14
vs Stronger (8)1.002.001.201.600.672.67
vs Similar (14)0.861.930.711.291.002.57
vs Weaker (8)2.000.881.750.752.251.00
Clean sheet %17% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC ThunFC Thun

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 2.60
Avg total 3.80
80-8avg 1.2avg 2.6avg total 3.812013101130238113106A·FC A·FC H·FC H·FC A·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·BSC
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.532.381.811.791.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.152.081.332.440.751.25
vs Weaker (17)2.821.123.711.002.201.20
Clean sheet %13% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
6.1%
FC Basel 1893 goals ↓
FC Thun goals →
01234
07.8%7.7%6.1%2.7%0.9%
17.7%13%8.3%3.7%1.3%
26.1%8.3%5.6%2.6%0.9%
32.8%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Basel 1893 goals (down), columns = FC Thun goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC ST. Gallen
3.00
BSC Young Boys
3.00
FC Lugano
3.00
Lausanne
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Sion
1.50
FC Thun
1.50
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
0.50
FC Luzern
0.00
Servette FC
0.00
FC Vaduz
0.00
FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun are level in average points per game (both 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
5.00
FC Lugano
3.00
FC Sion
2.50
FC ST. Gallen
2.50
FC Thun
1.50
FC Zurich
1.50
FC Vaduz
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
FC Basel 1893
0.50
FC Luzern
0.50
Servette FC
0.50
FC Basel 1893 is 1.00 goals worse than FC Thun in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Basel 1893
0.50
Lausanne
0.50
BSC Young Boys
1.00
FC Lugano
1.00
FC Zurich
1.50
FC ST. Gallen
1.50
Servette FC
1.50
FC Sion
2.00
Grasshoppers
2.50
FC Vaduz
2.50
FC Luzern
3.00
FC Thun
3.50
FC Basel 1893 is 3.00 goals better than FC Thun in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 3.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
FC Sion
58%
Servette FC
56%
FC Lugano
54%
FC Vaduz
52%
BSC Young Boys
51%
Lausanne
50%
FC Zurich
49%
FC Basel 1893
48%
FC Luzern
48%
FC ST. Gallen
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Thun
43%
FC Basel 1893 is 5.0 percentage points better than FC Thun in terms of average possession (48% vs 43%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FC Basel 1893FC Basel 1893

For 5.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.3

🚩 Corners

180745115510865523685373511161018117913108H·LAUA·SERA·FC H·FC A·BSCH·FC H·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.1

🟨 Cards

902522453116132136227494715482H·LAUA·FC H·FC A·BSCH·FC H·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC H·SER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 15.4 · Total 26.5

⚠️ Fouls

3501615151281212231012921137819616141731272035223020272231H·LAUA·SERA·FC H·FC A·BSCH·FC H·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC ThunFC Thun

For 5.3 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.7

🚩 Corners

1804561293323925755853929181251271213811H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·FC H·FC A·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

80111323535261342332232458777555H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·FC H·FC A·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 12.0 · Total 27.8

⚠️ Fouls

34015151013171617131582191014198159191530233330233024272434H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·BSCA·FC A·FC H·FC H·FC A·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC Basel 1893FC Basel 1893

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.210.64.85.24.426.727.226.2
vs Stronger (14)9.49.39.44.85.93.730.230.030.4
vs Similar (23)10.811.210.54.74.94.524.626.123.2
vs Weaker (13)10.89.412.34.95.04.826.526.027.2
% over line56%52%60%74%80%68%86%92%80%
% under line44%48%40%26%20%32%14%8%20%
This opponent (FC Thun) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC ThunFC Thun

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (40)10.310.710.05.04.85.228.228.627.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (17)9.710.19.25.65.75.528.828.329.2
vs Weaker (23)10.811.210.54.64.25.027.728.826.8
% over line60%65%55%78%70%85%92%95%90%
% under line40%35%45%22%30%15%8%5%10%
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.8
Lausanne
10.7
FC ST. Gallen
10.6
FC Luzern
10.4
FC Basel 1893
10.4
FC Thun
10.3
Servette FC
10.3
FC Vaduz
10.0
Grasshoppers
9.8
BSC Young Boys
9.7
FC Sion
9.7
FC Lugano
8.7

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.3
FC Thun
5.0
Lausanne
5.0
FC Zurich
5.0
FC Basel 1893
4.9
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Sion
4.7
FC Vaduz
4.5
Servette FC
4.5
FC Luzern
4.3
BSC Young Boys
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.8
FC Thun
28.2
FC Zurich
27.9
FC Sion
27.4
FC Basel 1893
26.7
Grasshoppers
25.5
FC Lugano
25.2
Lausanne
24.6
BSC Young Boys
24.1
Servette FC
23.8
FC Luzern
23.4
FC Vaduz
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.7%
Under 9.5
39.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.9%
Under 21.5
13.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 21.5 fouls86.9%-------
Over 1.576.8%-------
Over 3.5 cards76.4%-------
Under 3.570.9%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (39)
€83m
FB1 (29)
€70m
FL (34)
€69m
FZ (82)
€58m
LAU (62)
€47m
FSG (33)
€41m
FL (31)
€41m
FT (28)
€30m
FS (28)
€29m
SF (28)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Basel 1893's squad is €39m more valuable than FC Thun's (€70m vs €30m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (12)
€37m
FZ (25)
€23m
FSG (15)
€20m
BYB (8)
€18m
LAU (23)
€18m
FS (11)
€17m
FL (12)
€15m
FL (9)
€8m
FT (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€4m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's attack is €29m more valuable than FC Thun's (€37m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (11)
€21m
FB1 (5)
€17m
FZ (21)
€16m
FT (10)
€13m
LAU (12)
€9m
FL (8)
€9m
SF (10)
€6m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (7)
€5m
FL (5)
€5m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's midfield is €4m more valuable than FC Thun's (€17m vs €13m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€52m
BYB (20)
€44m
FL (14)
€20m
LAU (27)
€20m
FZ (36)
€19m
FB1 (12)
€15m
FSG (12)
€14m
FT (11)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
SF (12)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Basel 1893's defence is €6m more valuable than FC Thun's (€15m vs €10m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun · H/A from FB1
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HFB1 Vs FC Thun3-1
18/04/26AFC Thun Vs FB13-1
01/02/26HFB1 Vs FC Thun1-2
13/09/25AFC Thun Vs FB11-3

FC Basel 1893FC Basel 1893

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HFB1 Vs Lausanne0-1
25/07/26AServette FC Vs FB10-1
17/05/26AFC Lugano Vs FB14-0
14/05/26HFB1 Vs FC ST. Gallen1-3
10/05/26ABSC Young Boys Vs FB13-0
02/05/26HFB1 Vs FC Thun3-1
26/04/26HFB1 Vs FC Sion0-2
18/04/26AFC Thun Vs FB13-1
04/04/26HFB1 Vs BSC Young Boys3-3
22/03/26AFC Winterthur Vs FB10-2

FC ThunFC Thun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HFT Vs BSC Young Boys0-6
25/07/26AFC Luzern Vs FT1-3
17/05/26AFC ST. Gallen Vs FT1-1
14/05/26HFT Vs BSC Young Boys3-8
10/05/26AFC Sion Vs FT2-0
02/05/26AFC Basel 1893 Vs FT3-1
25/04/26HFT Vs FC Lugano0-1
18/04/26HFT Vs FC Basel 18933-1
04/04/26AFC Lugano Vs FT1-0
21/03/26AFC Zurich Vs FT2-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Switzerland: Super League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.32
HomeDLWLL1.48
AwayWLLLW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.822.523.12
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Scored1.321.441.20
Conceded1.501.081.92
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Failed to Score26%24%28%
FC Thun
FC Thun
Switzerland: Super League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.95
HomeWWLLL1.90
AwayLLLDW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%60%65%
AVG goals3.554.003.10
Over 2.5 %75%75%75%
Scored2.082.251.90
Conceded1.481.751.20
BTTS70%70%70%
Clean Sheet15%10%20%
Failed to Score15%20%10%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BSC Young Boys2
100%
3.0
102+8
6.0
100%
100%
100%
9.5
50%
2.5
0%
28.5
100%
83
1821445.01.0
51%
2FC Lugano2
100%
3.0
62+4
4.0
100%
100%
50%
9.5
50%
2.5
0%
19.5
50%
69
89523.01.0
54%
3FC ST. Gallen2
100%
3.0
53+2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
10.5
50%
3.0
50%
28.5
50%
41
206142.51.5
46%
4Lausanne2
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
7.0
100%
33.0
100%
47
189201.00.5
50%
5FC Sion2
50%
1.5
54+1
4.5
100%
100%
50%
7.5
50%
2.5
0%
23.5
50%
29
17572.52.0
58%
6FC Zurich2
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.5
50%
4.5
100%
32.5
100%
58
2316191.51.5
49%
7FC Basel 18932
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
13.5
100%
7.0
100%
29.0
100%
70
3717150.50.5
48%
8FC Thun2
50%
1.5
37-4
5.0
100%
100%
100%
13.5
50%
3.0
50%
26.5
100%
30
813101.53.5
43%
9Grasshoppers2
0%
0.5
25-3
3.5
100%
50%
50%
7.0
0%
4.5
50%
25.0
50%
0
0001.02.5
45%
10FC Vaduz2
0%
0.0
35-2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
12.5
100%
2.5
0%
20.5
50%
6
2221.52.5
52%
11Servette FC2
0%
0.0
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
13.5
100%
5.0
100%
26.0
100%
17
4660.51.5
56%
12FC Luzern2
0%
0.0
16-5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
11.5
50%
3.0
50%
21.5
50%
41
155200.53.0
48%
Switzerland: Super League 2026-27 full table · FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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