This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Avg scored1.20
Avg conceded2.90
Avg total4.10
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.40
1.87
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.56
1.25
3.50
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.33
1.75
1.25
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
3-0
6.1%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
Motherwell goals ↓
Falkirk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
5.8%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.5%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Falkirk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Motherwell
3.00
Aberdeen
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
ST Mirren
3.00
Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Hibernian
0.00
Falkirk
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Motherwell is 3.00 points better than Falkirk in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
4.00
Kilmarnock
3.00
Motherwell
2.00
Aberdeen
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Rangers
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Falkirk
0.00
Motherwell is 2.00 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Mirren
0.00
Motherwell
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Kilmarnock
4.00
Motherwell is 1.00 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Falkirk
58%
ST Johnstone
56%
Rangers
55%
Motherwell
52%
Aberdeen
51%
Heart Of Midlothian
49%
Hibernian
48%
Dundee Utd
45%
Kilmarnock
44%
ST Mirren
42%
Motherwell is 6.0 percentage points worse than Falkirk in terms of average possession (52% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
For 5.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
7.8
9.0
4.7
4.6
4.8
25.8
26.2
25.4
vs Stronger (17)
8.3
7.0
9.4
5.1
5.1
5.1
25.0
23.9
26.0
vs Similar (31)
8.2
7.9
8.6
4.5
4.3
4.7
26.3
27.1
25.5
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
14.0
11.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
25.0
32.0
18.0
% over line
36%
17%
54%
70%
71%
69%
72%
75%
69%
% under line
64%
83%
46%
30%
29%
31%
28%
25%
31%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.9
10.7
4.3
4.3
4.2
25.2
25.5
25.0
vs Stronger (12)
10.6
8.8
11.9
3.5
4.0
3.1
22.5
23.6
21.7
vs Similar (23)
9.7
9.0
10.7
4.4
4.4
4.4
25.3
25.5
25.2
vs Weaker (15)
9.1
8.9
9.4
4.7
4.5
5.0
27.3
26.8
27.9
% over line
58%
46%
71%
68%
73%
62%
76%
77%
75%
% under line
42%
54%
29%
32%
27%
38%
24%
23%
25%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
10.8
ST Johnstone
10.7
Hibernian
10.7
Dundee Utd
10.4
Rangers
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Falkirk
9.8
Aberdeen
9.7
Dundee
9.7
Kilmarnock
9.6
Motherwell
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
5.0
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
ST Johnstone
4.3
Falkirk
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Celtic
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.0
Rangers
3.7
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.2
Motherwell
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
24.4
ST Johnstone
23.9
Rangers
23.6
Hibernian
23.4
Dundee
22.6
Dundee Utd
22.3
ST Mirren
22.2
Celtic
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.0%
Under 9.5
52.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.8%
Under 21.5
26.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
SJ (26)
€5m
Motherwell's squad is €14m more valuable than Falkirk's (€21m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
Motherwell's attack is €9m more valuable than Falkirk's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
SJ (7)
€1m
Motherwell's midfield is €2m more valuable than Falkirk's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
Motherwell's defence is €3m more valuable than Falkirk's (€6m vs €3m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Motherwell vs Falkirk · H/A from MOT
Date
H/A
Game
Score
02/05/26
A
Falkirk Vs MOT
1-0
04/04/26
H
MOT Vs Falkirk
2-3
03/12/25
A
Falkirk Vs MOT
0-0
18/10/25
H
MOT Vs Falkirk
1-2
Motherwell
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
02/08/26
A
Hibernian Vs MOT
1-2
16/05/26
A
Hibernian Vs MOT
0-1
13/05/26
H
MOT Vs Celtic
2-3
09/05/26
H
MOT Vs Heart Of Midlothian
1-1
09/05/26
H
MOT Vs Hearts
1-1
02/05/26
A
Falkirk Vs MOT
1-0
26/04/26
A
Rangers Vs MOT
2-3
11/04/26
A
Heart Of Midlothian Vs MOT
3-1
11/04/26
A
Hearts Vs MOT
3-1
04/04/26
H
MOT Vs Falkirk
2-3
Falkirk
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
01/08/26
H
FAL Vs ST Mirren
0-2
16/05/26
H
FAL Vs Rangers
2-5
13/05/26
A
Heart Of Midlothian Vs FAL
3-0
13/05/26
A
Hearts Vs FAL
3-0
09/05/26
H
FAL Vs Hibernian
1-3
02/05/26
H
FAL Vs Motherwell
1-0
25/04/26
A
Celtic Vs FAL
3-1
12/04/26
H
FAL Vs Rangers
3-6
04/04/26
A
Motherwell Vs FAL
2-3
21/03/26
H
FAL Vs ST Mirren
1-2
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Motherwell
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DDLWW
1.56
Home
DLDDL
1.88
Away
LWLWW
1.27
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
40%
50%
31%
AVG goals
2.56
2.29
2.81
Over 2.5 %
44%
33%
54%
Scored
1.50
1.62
1.38
Conceded
1.06
0.67
1.42
BTTS
50%
38%
62%
Clean Sheet
42%
62%
23%
Failed to Score
22%
17%
27%
Falkirk
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LLLLL
1.18
Home
LWLLL
1.35
Away
DWLLL
1.00
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
34%
38%
29%
AVG goals
2.88
3.31
2.42
Over 2.5 %
56%
58%
54%
Scored
1.26
1.69
0.79
Conceded
1.62
1.62
1.62
BTTS
48%
62%
33%
Clean Sheet
22%
23%
21%
Failed to Score
34%
19%
50%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
1
ST Mirren
1
100%
3.0
2
0
+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
14.0
100%
4.0
100%
36.0
100%
8
3
3
2
2.0
0.0
42%
2
ST Johnstone
1
100%
3.0
4
3
+1
7.0
100%
100%
100%
9.0
0%
4.0
100%
19.0
0%
5
3
1
2
4.0
3.0
56%
3
Motherwell
1
100%
3.0
2
1
+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
27.0
100%
21
12
4
6
2.0
1.0
52%
4
Aberdeen
1
100%
3.0
2
1
+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
5.0
100%
27.0
100%
24
10
5
8
2.0
1.0
51%
5
Rangers
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
15.0
100%
4.0
100%
30.0
100%
127
59
28
40
1.0
1.0
55%
6
Dundee Utd
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
15.0
100%
4.0
100%
30.0
100%
0
0
0
0
1.0
1.0
45%
7
Kilmarnock
1
0%
0.0
3
4
-1
7.0
100%
100%
100%
9.0
0%
4.0
100%
19.0
0%
13
5
3
5
3.0
4.0
44%
8
Hibernian
1
0%
0.0
1
2
-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
27.0
100%
30
14
10
6
1.0
2.0
48%
9
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0%
0.0
1
2
-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
5.0
100%
27.0
100%
33
19
9
5
1.0
2.0
49%
10
Falkirk
1
0%
0.0
0
2
-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
14.0
100%
4.0
100%
36.0
100%
7
2
2
3
0.0
2.0
58%
Scotland: Premiership 2026-27 full table · Motherwell and Falkirk highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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