PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 14/08/2026
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
Vs
27%
27%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Viking
Viking
Norway: Eliteserien
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rosenborg win
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Viking win
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RosenborgRosenborg

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.10
Avg total 2.80
40-4avg 1.7avg 1.1avg total 2.800110320230222303040A·SANH·BRAA·VIKH·LILH·AALA·KFUH·BODH·KRIA·STAH·FRE
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.941.120.931.86
vs Stronger (8)0.621.381.001.000.401.60
vs Similar (14)1.141.861.441.330.602.80
vs Weaker (8)2.880.883.750.752.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Viking) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VikingViking

Avg scored 2.30
Avg conceded 0.90
Avg total 3.20
60-6avg 2.3avg 0.9avg total 3.221302063210121211130A·FREH·ROSA·KFUH·STAA·KRIA·SARH·SANA·LILA·AALA·STA
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.073.311.001.941.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)5.000.005.000.00--
vs Weaker (29)2.451.103.171.081.941.12
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.5%
Rosenborg goals ↓
Viking goals →
01234
07.5%8.8%7.9%4.2%1.6%
16.3%13%9.3%4.9%1.9%
24.4%7.0%5.5%2.9%1.1%
31.7%2.7%2.2%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rosenborg goals (down), columns = Viking goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Viking
2.47
Bodo/Glimt
2.38
Tromso
2.12
Lillestrom
1.67
Molde
1.60
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.40
Valerenga
1.33
Rosenborg
1.29
Brann
1.27
Fredrikstad
1.13
KFUM Oslo
1.00
Sandefjord
1.00
Aalesund
0.87
Kristiansund BK
0.80
Start
0.62
Rosenborg is 1.18 points worse than Viking in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.56
Viking
2.47
Tromso
2.00
Brann
2.00
Molde
1.87
Ham-Kam
1.53
Lillestrom
1.47
Valerenga
1.47
Aalesund
1.40
Rosenborg
1.36
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.20
KFUM Oslo
1.13
Fredrikstad
1.07
Start
1.00
Kristiansund BK
0.87
Sandefjord
0.87
Rosenborg is 1.11 goals worse than Viking in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 2.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.69
Viking
0.93
Tromso
1.06
Lillestrom
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.27
Rosenborg
1.29
Sandefjord
1.40
Molde
1.47
Kristiansund BK
1.67
Brann
1.67
KFUM Oslo
1.73
Ham-Kam
1.73
Fredrikstad
1.80
Valerenga
1.80
Start
2.31
Aalesund
2.33
Rosenborg is 0.35 goals worse than Viking in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.93).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Rosenborg
53%
Lillestrom
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
50%
Valerenga
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Aalesund
44%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
44%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Rosenborg is 1.4 percentage points better than Viking in terms of average possession (53% vs 51%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

RosenborgRosenborg

For 5.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.5

🚩 Corners

180103358762911143771111713815611115101818H·FREA·STAH·KRIH·BODA·KFUH·AALH·LILA·VIKH·BRAA·SAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6

🟨 Cards

80122121226223213131413284544H·FREA·STAH·KRIH·BODA·KFUH·AALH·LILA·VIKH·BRAA·SAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.1

⚠️ Fouls

36015915151422161441671591515131117121724303630202224282829H·FREA·STAH·KRIH·BODA·KFUH·AALH·LILA·VIKH·BRAA·SAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

VikingViking

For 6.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.6

🚩 Corners

140561049365434412264736311141211781410109A·STAA·AALA·LILH·SANA·SARA·KRIH·STAA·KFUH·ROSA·FRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

70323342332432342325666275452A·STAA·AALA·LILH·SANA·SARA·KRIH·STAA·KFUH·ROSA·FRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

37011128182017221096151112132131315111023263732152625152821A·STAA·AALA·LILH·SANA·SARA·KRIH·STAA·KFUH·ROSA·FRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RosenborgRosenborg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.012.19.73.43.43.424.524.324.7
vs Stronger (11)9.910.59.43.73.63.825.125.524.8
vs Similar (22)11.612.99.93.63.73.525.024.525.7
vs Weaker (17)10.811.89.72.82.82.923.523.623.4
% over line64%78%48%48%48%48%68%65%71%
% under line36%22%52%52%52%52%32%35%29%
This opponent (Viking) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VikingViking

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.712.710.84.03.54.424.724.824.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (3)8.39.07.03.33.04.022.724.020.0
vs Weaker (47)11.913.110.94.03.54.424.824.924.8
% over line68%77%60%58%50%65%62%64%60%
% under line32%23%40%42%50%35%38%36%40%
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Viking
11.7
Aalesund
11.6
Valerenga
11.6
Sandefjord
11.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.1
Rosenborg
10.9
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.4
Lillestrom
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.3
Molde
10.2
Fredrikstad
9.9
Tromso
9.0
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Lillestrom
4.5
Viking
4.3
Valerenga
4.1
Brann
4.1
Molde
4.1
Rosenborg
4.0
Kristiansund BK
3.8
Start
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Aalesund
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.6
Tromso
3.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.1
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.9

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.5
Viking
24.7
Lillestrom
24.7
Valerenga
24.3
Rosenborg
24.3
Start
24.2
Brann
24.2
Aalesund
23.7
Tromso
23.4
Ham-Kam
23.3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.9
Molde
22.8
Kristiansund BK
22.0
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Fredrikstad
21.2
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
72.8%
Under 9.5
27.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.1%
Under 21.5
24.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.577.4%-------
Over 21.5 fouls75.1%-------
Over 9.5 corners72.8%-------
Under 3.570.1%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Rosenborg's squad is €27m less valuable than Viking's (€18m vs €45m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Rosenborg's attack is €14m less valuable than Viking's (€6m vs €20m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Rosenborg's midfield is €8m less valuable than Viking's (€3m vs €12m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Rosenborg's defence is €5m less valuable than Viking's (€8m vs €13m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Rosenborg vs Viking · H/A from ROS
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/26AViking Vs ROS3-0
31/08/25AViking Vs ROS2-1
28/06/25HROS Vs Viking1-1

RosenborgRosenborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26HROS Vs Fredrikstad4-0
18/07/26AStart Vs ROS0-3
12/07/26HROS Vs Kristiansund BK3-0
29/05/26HROS Vs Bodo/Glimt2-2
25/05/26AKFUM Oslo Vs ROS2-0
16/05/26HROS Vs Aalesund2-3
10/05/26HROS Vs Lillestrom2-0
01/05/26AViking Vs ROS3-0
25/04/26HROS Vs Brann1-1
18/04/26ASandefjord Vs ROS0-0

VikingViking

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26AStart Vs VIK0-3
26/07/26AAalesund Vs VIK1-1
22/07/26ALillestrom Vs VIK1-2
18/07/26HVIK Vs Sandefjord2-1
12/07/26ASarpsborg 08 FF Vs VIK1-0
24/05/26AKristiansund BK Vs VIK1-2
16/05/26HVIK Vs Start6-3
10/05/26AKFUM Oslo Vs VIK0-2
01/05/26HVIK Vs Rosenborg3-0
25/04/26AFredrikstad Vs VIK1-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
Norway: Eliteserien
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.46
HomeWLDWW1.85
AwayLDLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%29%
AVG goals2.802.772.83
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Scored1.501.921.04
Conceded1.300.851.79
BTTS42%50%33%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Failed to Score26%12%42%
Viking
Viking
Norway: Eliteserien
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW2.35
HomeWWWWW2.57
AwayWLWDW2.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %73%83%65%
AVG goals3.784.303.31
Over 2.5 %76%87%65%
Scored2.613.222.08
Conceded1.161.091.23
BTTS67%61%73%
Clean Sheet31%39%23%
Failed to Score4%4%4%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Bodo/Glimt16
75%
2.4
4111+30
3.2
88%
69%
44%
9.7
56%
2.4
13%
19.6
31%
75
2227262.60.7
65%
2Viking15
80%
2.5
3714+23
3.4
87%
73%
27%
11.5
80%
4.9
80%
25.2
67%
45
2012132.50.9
51%
3Tromso16
62%
2.1
3217+15
3.1
81%
50%
44%
9.9
44%
2.6
29%
22.7
62%
0
0002.01.1
50%
4Lillestrom15
53%
1.7
2218+4
2.7
87%
53%
33%
10.3
60%
4.5
57%
24.7
67%
14
6451.51.2
52%
5Molde15
47%
1.6
2822+6
3.3
80%
60%
40%
10.0
47%
3.9
53%
24.5
60%
35
137151.91.5
59%
6Sarpsborg 08 FF15
40%
1.5
1819-1
2.5
67%
47%
20%
9.7
53%
3.5
40%
22.9
60%
16
9341.21.3
44%
7Ham-Kam15
40%
1.4
2326-3
3.3
87%
73%
40%
9.3
47%
3.4
50%
25.1
67%
0
0001.51.7
47%
8Valerenga15
40%
1.3
2227-5
3.3
80%
53%
47%
12.3
67%
3.8
50%
21.9
40%
14
6531.51.8
48%
9Brann15
40%
1.3
3025+5
3.7
93%
87%
47%
11.6
67%
3.7
67%
24.5
67%
25
10792.01.7
59%
10Rosenborg14
36%
1.3
1918+1
2.6
93%
50%
21%
11.7
64%
3.6
57%
25.7
79%
18
6381.41.3
53%
11Fredrikstad15
33%
1.1
1627-11
2.9
87%
60%
33%
9.9
60%
3.5
47%
23.1
60%
15
5381.11.8
47%
12Sandefjord15
27%
1.0
1321-8
2.3
67%
47%
20%
12.5
87%
3.6
57%
24.4
73%
11
4250.91.4
51%
13KFUM Oslo15
27%
1.0
1726-9
2.9
87%
60%
33%
8.9
53%
3.6
53%
21.2
40%
8
3241.11.7
45%
14Aalesund15
13%
0.9
2135-14
3.7
93%
67%
53%
12.1
87%
3.8
57%
23.5
67%
13
5441.42.3
44%
15Kristiansund BK15
20%
0.8
1325-12
2.5
87%
53%
13%
10.7
53%
4.1
47%
24.2
60%
13
5430.91.7
43%
16Start16
12%
0.6
1637-21
3.3
100%
62%
25%
8.9
31%
3.8
50%
24.2
81%
9
2341.02.3
42%
Norway: Eliteserien 2026-27 full table · Rosenborg and Viking highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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