PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
Vs
66%
24%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
IK brage
IK brage
Sweden: Superettan
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IFK Norrkoping win
65.5%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.56
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.21
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
IK brage win
10.9%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.88
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
5.60
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping

Avg scored 1.60
Avg conceded 0.20
Avg total 1.80
30-3avg 1.6avg 0.2avg total 1.800202021202001301020A·IK H·OSTA·HELA·ODDH·VARA·OSTH·NORH·SANA·LANH·HEL
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.641.071.061.12
vs Stronger (7)0.862.141.002.250.672.00
vs Similar (16)1.190.751.570.710.890.78
vs Weaker (7)2.140.862.670.331.751.25
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IK brageIK brage

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 3.40
50-5avg 1.7avg 1.7avg total 3.400012222235124230021H·IFKA·UNIA·LANH·LJUA·SANH·IFKH·FALA·OSTA·IFKH·LAN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.802.332.131.201.47
vs Stronger (7)1.861.862.002.501.671.00
vs Similar (19)1.471.842.001.781.001.90
vs Weaker (4)3.001.504.503.001.500.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.13-11.2%
Under 1.5
28.9%
@ 5.20+11.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Under
Pinnacle
5.53
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
888Sport
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.45-19.5%
Under 2.5
55.9%
@ 2.54+19.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
888Sport
1.44
Under
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.61
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
888Sport
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.0%
@ 2.18-19.9%
Under 3.5
77.0%
@ 1.64+19.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
888Sport
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Both teams to score
Yes
39.6%
@ 1.51-21.3%
No
60.4%
@ 2.35+21.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.50
No
1xBet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
10Bet
2.35

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%@ 9.37+10.2%
2-0
14.5%@ 8.86+9.6%
1-1
10.8%@ 8.00+5.3%
0-0
9.7%@ 15.86+6.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.41+3.0%
3-0
8.8%@ 11.59+5.0%
3-1
5.4%@ 10.09+1.1%
0-1
4.4%@ 16.64+1.8%
IFK Norrkoping goals ↓
IK brage goals →
01234
09.7%4.4%1.7%0.3%0.1%
115%11%3.0%0.6%0.1%
214%8.9%2.8%0.6%0.1%
38.8%5.4%1.7%0.3%0.1%
44.0%2.5%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Norrkoping goals (down), columns = IK brage goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.06
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.94
Falkenbergs FF
1.82
Ostersunds FK
1.71
United Nordic
1.59
Osters IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.47
Helsingborg
1.41
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Sandviken
1.29
Oddevold
1.29
IK brage
1.18
Norrby IF
1.12
Orebro SK
0.94
IFK Varnamo
0.69
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
IFK Norrkoping is 0.88 points better than IK brage in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.00
Falkenbergs FF
1.94
Helsingborg
1.76
Sandviken
1.76
IK brage
1.76
IFK Norrkoping
1.71
United Nordic
1.65
Oddevold
1.65
Ostersunds FK
1.59
Osters IF
1.59
Ljungskile SK
1.47
Landskrona BoIS
1.35
Norrby IF
1.24
IFK Varnamo
1.06
Orebro SK
0.81
GIF Sundsvall
0.76
IFK Norrkoping is 0.06 goals worse than IK brage in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.59
Landskrona BoIS
1.12
Ostersunds FK
1.24
Norrby IF
1.35
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.35
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Orebro SK
1.38
Sandviken
1.47
United Nordic
1.47
Falkenbergs FF
1.53
Oddevold
1.53
Osters IF
1.53
IK brage
1.76
Helsingborg
2.00
IFK Varnamo
2.12
GIF Sundsvall
2.41
IFK Norrkoping is 1.18 goals better than IK brage in terms of goals conceded per game (0.59 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
IFK Norrkoping is 6.7 percentage points better than IK brage in terms of average possession (55% vs 48%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

IFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping

For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7

🚩 Corners

1602444144455412737744102685810161014812A·OSTH·VARA·ODDA·HELH·OSTA·IK H·UNIA·FALH·IFKH·ORG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

70322211433222111135427542113A·OSTH·VARA·ODDA·HELH·OSTA·IK H·UNIA·FALH·IFKH·ORG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.3

⚠️ Fouls

3501313131816161310151220151314158161311926313223273527232920A·OSTH·VARH·UNIA·FALH·IFKH·ORGA·ORGA·IFKH·SIRA·MJA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IK brageIK brage

For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

1702351274124133215247556517111645661211A·IFKA·LANA·UNIH·IFKH·OSTH·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LANH·KAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

703343211222232413236731425645A·IFKH·LJUA·LANA·UNIH·IFKH·OSTH·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

2901415121314149910142925281824H·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LANH·KAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (49)11.112.79.73.73.93.427.528.826.1
vs Stronger (16)11.413.49.54.65.83.526.727.925.5
vs Similar (20)10.812.59.73.02.43.527.028.825.2
vs Weaker (13)11.212.010.03.53.73.329.630.228.8
% over line66%85%48%51%54%48%92%95%89%
% under line34%15%52%49%46%52%8%5%11%
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IK brageIK brage

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (47)9.38.79.92.22.02.324.825.723.9
vs Stronger (12)9.08.410.52.83.41.824.326.219.5
vs Similar (30)10.09.010.81.81.61.925.125.025.2
vs Weaker (5)6.0-6.03.00.05.025.0-25.0
% over line39%36%42%34%30%38%78%78%78%
% under line61%64%58%66%70%62%22%22%22%
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Osters IF
12.0
IFK Norrkoping
11.1
IFK Varnamo
10.8
Landskrona BoIS
10.6
Sandviken
10.6
Ljungskile SK
10.2
GIF Sundsvall
9.7
Oddevold
9.5
Falkenbergs FF
9.3
IK brage
9.3
Orebro SK
9.3
Ostersunds FK
9.3
Helsingborg
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Varbergs BoIS FC
8.9
Norrby IF
7.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.4
Helsingborg
4.3
IK brage
4.2
Landskrona BoIS
4.1
Osters IF
4.0
Orebro SK
3.8
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
IFK Varnamo
3.2
Ostersunds FK
3.2
Sandviken
3.0
United Nordic
2.7
GIF Sundsvall
2.7
Norrby IF
2.6
Oddevold
2.5
Falkenbergs FF
2.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
28.1
IFK Norrkoping
27.5
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Landskrona BoIS
25.2
IK brage
24.8
Osters IF
24.7
Ostersunds FK
24.5
Orebro SK
24.1
Helsingborg
23.7
IFK Varnamo
23.4
Falkenbergs FF
22.9
Norrby IF
22.7
Sandviken
22.6
Oddevold
22.1
GIF Sundsvall
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.8%
@ 1.46-19.2%
Under 9.5
56.2%
@ 2.48+19.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.48
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
16.5%
Under 21.5
83.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 21.5 fouls83.5%-------
Under 3.577.0%1.64
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
+19.9%
Over 1.571.1%1.13
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
-11.2%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
IFK Norrkoping's squad is €5m more valuable than IK brage's (€9m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
IFK Norrkoping's attack is €2m more valuable than IK brage's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
IFK Norrkoping's midfield is €1m more valuable than IK brage's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
IFK Norrkoping and IK brage have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage · H/A from IN
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26AIK brage Vs IN0-0

IFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HIN Vs Helsingborg2-0
28/07/26ALandskrona BoIS Vs IN0-1
19/07/26HIN Vs Sandviken3-0
28/06/26HIN Vs Norrby IF0-1
21/06/26AOstersunds FK Vs IN0-2
15/06/26HIN Vs Varbergs BoIS FC2-0
09/06/26AOddevold Vs IN1-2
31/05/26AHelsingborg Vs IN0-2
25/05/26HIN Vs Osters IF2-0
16/05/26AIK brage Vs IN0-0

IK brageIK brage

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HIB Vs Landskrona BoIS2-1
25/07/26AIFK Varnamo Vs IB0-0
18/07/26AOsters IF Vs IB3-2
26/06/26HIB Vs Falkenbergs FF2-4
21/06/26HIB Vs IFK Varnamo5-1
14/06/26ASandviken Vs IB3-2
09/06/26HIB Vs Ljungskile SK2-2
30/05/26ALandskrona BoIS Vs IB2-2
23/05/26AUnited Nordic Vs IB1-0
16/05/26HIB Vs IFK Norrkoping0-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
Sweden: Superettan
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.33
HomeWWLWW1.38
AwayDWWWW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%42%36%
AVG goals2.842.922.76
Over 2.5 %51%54%48%
Scored1.411.541.28
Conceded1.431.381.48
BTTS49%42%56%
Clean Sheet27%29%24%
Failed to Score31%33%28%
IK brage
IK brage
Sweden: Superettan
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.30
HomeDDWLW1.17
AwayLDLLD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%30%38%
AVG goals3.454.002.92
Over 2.5 %68%78%58%
Scored1.721.961.50
Conceded1.722.041.42
BTTS66%83%50%
Clean Sheet17%4%29%
Failed to Score21%17%25%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1IFK Norrkoping17
65%
2.1
2910+19
2.3
71%
35%
18%
9.4
44%
3.4
56%
27.8
100%
9
3331.70.6
55%
2Varbergs BoIS FC17
59%
1.9
3423+11
3.4
88%
76%
47%
7.8
36%
3.9
64%
30.8
100%
6
2222.01.4
47%
3Falkenbergs FF17
53%
1.8
3326+7
3.5
88%
76%
47%
9.1
44%
1.8
11%
20.3
67%
5
2131.91.5
50%
4Ostersunds FK17
47%
1.7
2721+6
2.8
82%
47%
29%
8.7
44%
3.3
56%
25.7
100%
4
1221.61.2
53%
5United Nordic17
41%
1.6
2825+3
3.1
88%
47%
41%
9.1
57%
2.7
29%
29.8
100%
3
0121.61.5
50%
6Osters IF17
47%
1.5
2726+1
3.1
76%
71%
41%
11.8
89%
2.9
33%
24.5
100%
5
2221.61.5
50%
7Landskrona BoIS17
41%
1.5
2319+4
2.5
71%
47%
24%
10.1
43%
3.7
43%
28.2
75%
6
2221.41.1
58%
8Helsingborg17
41%
1.4
3034-4
3.8
94%
71%
53%
9.8
75%
5.0
80%
26.0
100%
7
2221.82.0
45%
9Ljungskile SK17
35%
1.4
2523+2
2.8
71%
53%
41%
10.2
56%
3.8
50%
26.6
100%
3
1121.51.4
51%
10Sandviken17
35%
1.3
3025+5
3.2
76%
71%
41%
9.6
33%
2.4
11%
23.0
67%
4
1121.81.5
55%
11Oddevold17
29%
1.3
2826+2
3.2
76%
65%
47%
10.1
50%
2.4
22%
25.4
100%
5
1131.61.5
50%
12IK brage17
29%
1.2
3030+0
3.5
76%
71%
53%
8.8
38%
4.2
67%
27.3
100%
4
1121.81.8
48%
13Norrby IF17
18%
1.1
2123-2
2.6
76%
47%
35%
7.3
33%
2.3
33%
21.5
50%
3
1011.21.4
44%
14Orebro SK16
19%
0.9
1322-9
2.2
62%
38%
19%
9.5
50%
3.0
38%
23.3
67%
5
1130.81.4
50%
15IFK Varnamo16
19%
0.7
1734-17
3.2
69%
62%
50%
8.2
22%
2.9
22%
24.3
67%
5
2121.12.1
53%
16GIF Sundsvall17
18%
0.5
1341-28
3.2
76%
71%
41%
9.8
67%
2.6
22%
20.5
50%
4
1120.82.4
41%
Sweden: Superettan 2026-27 full table · IFK Norrkoping and IK brage highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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