PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 14/08/2026
IK brage
IK brage
Vs
54%
20%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
Sweden: Superettan
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IK brage win
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Orebro SK win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IK brageIK brage

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 3.40
50-5avg 1.7avg 1.7avg total 3.400012222235124230021H·IFKA·UNIA·LANH·LJUA·SANH·IFKH·FALA·OSTA·IFKH·LAN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.802.332.131.201.47
vs Stronger (7)1.861.862.002.501.671.00
vs Similar (19)1.471.842.001.781.001.90
vs Weaker (4)3.001.504.503.001.500.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orebro SKOrebro SK

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 2.60
40-4avg 0.9avg 1.7avg total 2.610141223011111230200A·IFKA·ODDH·HELA·OSTH·GIFA·FALH·SANA·LJUA·UNIH·ODD
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.191.121.211.86
vs Stronger (24)1.331.671.311.151.362.27
vs Similar (6)0.670.670.671.000.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%2%05%114%219%319%416%525%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.9%
Under 1.5
7.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
79.1%
Under 2.5
20.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
76.0%
No
24.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
1-1
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
2-0
4.6%
4-1
4.0%
IK brage goals ↓
Orebro SK goals →
01234
02.1%1.9%2.2%1.3%0.6%
13.1%7.0%5.5%3.2%1.4%
24.6%7.9%6.8%3.9%1.7%
33.8%6.5%5.7%3.3%1.4%
42.3%4.0%3.5%2.0%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IK brage goals (down), columns = Orebro SK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.06
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.94
Falkenbergs FF
1.82
Ostersunds FK
1.71
United Nordic
1.59
Osters IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.47
Helsingborg
1.41
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Sandviken
1.29
Oddevold
1.29
IK brage
1.18
Norrby IF
1.12
Orebro SK
0.94
IFK Varnamo
0.69
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
IK brage is 0.24 points better than Orebro SK in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.00
Falkenbergs FF
1.94
Helsingborg
1.76
Sandviken
1.76
IK brage
1.76
IFK Norrkoping
1.71
United Nordic
1.65
Oddevold
1.65
Ostersunds FK
1.59
Osters IF
1.59
Ljungskile SK
1.47
Landskrona BoIS
1.35
Norrby IF
1.24
IFK Varnamo
1.06
Orebro SK
0.81
GIF Sundsvall
0.76
IK brage is 0.95 goals better than Orebro SK in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 0.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.59
Landskrona BoIS
1.12
Ostersunds FK
1.24
Norrby IF
1.35
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.35
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Orebro SK
1.38
Sandviken
1.47
United Nordic
1.47
Falkenbergs FF
1.53
Oddevold
1.53
Osters IF
1.53
IK brage
1.76
Helsingborg
2.00
IFK Varnamo
2.12
GIF Sundsvall
2.41
IK brage is 0.39 goals worse than Orebro SK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
IK brage is 1.5 percentage points worse than Orebro SK in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

IK brageIK brage

For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

1702351274124133215247556517111645661211A·IFKA·LANA·UNIH·IFKH·OSTH·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LANH·KAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

703343211222232413236731425645A·IFKH·LJUA·LANA·UNIH·IFKH·OSTH·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

2901415121314149910142925281824H·VARA·GIFA·NORH·LANH·KAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Orebro SKOrebro SK

For 2.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

14043657651629532121528711711711814610A·LJUH·GIFA·OSTH·HELA·ODDA·IFKH·NORH·LANA·HAMA·TRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

80111213232222212442345224238A·LJUH·GIFA·OSTH·HELA·ODDA·IFKH·NORH·LANA·HAMA·TRE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.7

⚠️ Fouls

3301313781613161214191211261529283323A·ODDH·NORH·LANA·HAMA·TREH·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IK brageIK brage

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (48)9.38.79.92.12.02.224.825.723.9
vs Stronger (12)9.08.410.52.83.41.824.326.219.5
vs Similar (31)10.09.010.81.71.61.825.125.025.2
vs Weaker (5)6.0-6.03.00.05.025.0-25.0
% over line39%36%42%33%30%36%78%78%78%
% under line61%64%58%67%70%64%22%22%22%
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Orebro SKOrebro SK

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.310.28.61.92.01.824.124.623.6
vs Stronger (38)8.910.08.31.81.81.724.626.523.3
vs Similar (12)10.310.510.02.42.72.222.420.725.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line48%64%36%24%28%20%60%67%55%
% under line52%36%64%76%72%80%40%33%45%
This opponent (IK brage) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Osters IF
12.0
IFK Norrkoping
11.1
IFK Varnamo
10.8
Landskrona BoIS
10.6
Sandviken
10.6
Ljungskile SK
10.2
GIF Sundsvall
9.7
Oddevold
9.5
Falkenbergs FF
9.3
IK brage
9.3
Orebro SK
9.3
Ostersunds FK
9.3
Helsingborg
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Varbergs BoIS FC
8.9
Norrby IF
7.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.4
Helsingborg
4.3
IK brage
4.2
Landskrona BoIS
4.1
Osters IF
4.0
Orebro SK
3.8
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
IFK Varnamo
3.2
Ostersunds FK
3.2
Sandviken
3.0
United Nordic
2.7
GIF Sundsvall
2.7
Norrby IF
2.6
Oddevold
2.5
Falkenbergs FF
2.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
28.1
IFK Norrkoping
27.5
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Landskrona BoIS
25.2
IK brage
24.8
Osters IF
24.7
Ostersunds FK
24.5
Orebro SK
24.1
Helsingborg
23.7
IFK Varnamo
23.4
Falkenbergs FF
22.9
Norrby IF
22.7
Sandviken
22.6
Oddevold
22.1
GIF Sundsvall
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
25.9%
Under 9.5
74.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
2.0%
Under 21.5
98.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 21.5 fouls98.0%-------
Over 1.592.9%-------
Over 2.579.1%-------
BTTS Yes76.0%-------
Under 9.5 corners74.1%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
IK brage and Orebro SK have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
IK brage and Orebro SK have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
IK brage and Orebro SK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
IK brage and Orebro SK have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

IK brage vs Orebro SK · H/A from IB
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26AOrebro SK Vs IB0-3
20/09/25HIB Vs Orebro SK4-5
30/05/25AOrebro SK Vs IB3-3

IK brageIK brage

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HIB Vs Landskrona BoIS2-1
25/07/26AIFK Varnamo Vs IB0-0
18/07/26AOsters IF Vs IB3-2
26/06/26HIB Vs Falkenbergs FF2-4
21/06/26HIB Vs IFK Varnamo5-1
14/06/26ASandviken Vs IB3-2
09/06/26HIB Vs Ljungskile SK2-2
30/05/26ALandskrona BoIS Vs IB2-2
23/05/26AUnited Nordic Vs IB1-0
16/05/26HIB Vs IFK Norrkoping0-0

Orebro SKOrebro SK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26HOS Vs Oddevold0-0
19/07/26AUnited Nordic Vs OS2-0
27/06/26ALjungskile SK Vs OS3-2
22/06/26HOS Vs Sandviken1-1
14/06/26AFalkenbergs FF Vs OS1-1
10/06/26HOS Vs GIF Sundsvall0-1
31/05/26AOstersunds FK Vs OS3-2
26/05/26HOS Vs Helsingborg1-2
18/05/26AOddevold Vs OS4-1
12/05/26AIFK Varnamo Vs OS0-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

IK brage
IK brage
Sweden: Superettan
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.30
HomeDDWLW1.17
AwayLDLLD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%30%38%
AVG goals3.454.002.92
Over 2.5 %68%78%58%
Scored1.721.961.50
Conceded1.722.041.42
BTTS66%83%50%
Clean Sheet17%4%29%
Failed to Score21%17%25%
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
Sweden: Superettan
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD0.83
HomeLLLDD1.12
AwayLLDLL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%25%8%
AVG goals2.712.293.12
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Scored1.101.041.17
Conceded1.601.251.96
BTTS62%54%71%
Clean Sheet19%25%12%
Failed to Score29%33%25%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1IFK Norrkoping17
65%
2.1
2910+19
2.3
71%
35%
18%
9.4
44%
3.4
56%
27.8
100%
9
3331.70.6
55%
2Varbergs BoIS FC17
59%
1.9
3423+11
3.4
88%
76%
47%
7.8
36%
3.9
64%
30.8
100%
6
2222.01.4
47%
3Falkenbergs FF17
53%
1.8
3326+7
3.5
88%
76%
47%
9.1
44%
1.8
11%
20.3
67%
5
2131.91.5
50%
4Ostersunds FK17
47%
1.7
2721+6
2.8
82%
47%
29%
8.7
44%
3.3
56%
25.7
100%
4
1221.61.2
53%
5United Nordic17
41%
1.6
2825+3
3.1
88%
47%
41%
9.1
57%
2.7
29%
29.8
100%
3
0121.61.5
50%
6Osters IF17
47%
1.5
2726+1
3.1
76%
71%
41%
11.8
89%
2.9
33%
24.5
100%
5
2221.61.5
50%
7Landskrona BoIS17
41%
1.5
2319+4
2.5
71%
47%
24%
10.1
43%
3.7
43%
28.2
75%
6
2221.41.1
58%
8Helsingborg17
41%
1.4
3034-4
3.8
94%
71%
53%
9.8
75%
5.0
80%
26.0
100%
7
2221.82.0
45%
9Ljungskile SK17
35%
1.4
2523+2
2.8
71%
53%
41%
10.2
56%
3.8
50%
26.6
100%
3
1121.51.4
51%
10Sandviken17
35%
1.3
3025+5
3.2
76%
71%
41%
9.6
33%
2.4
11%
23.0
67%
4
1121.81.5
55%
11Oddevold17
29%
1.3
2826+2
3.2
76%
65%
47%
10.1
50%
2.4
22%
25.4
100%
5
1131.61.5
50%
12IK brage17
29%
1.2
3030+0
3.5
76%
71%
53%
8.8
38%
4.2
67%
27.3
100%
4
1121.81.8
48%
13Norrby IF17
18%
1.1
2123-2
2.6
76%
47%
35%
7.3
33%
2.3
33%
21.5
50%
3
1011.21.4
44%
14Orebro SK16
19%
0.9
1322-9
2.2
62%
38%
19%
9.5
50%
3.0
38%
23.3
67%
5
1130.81.4
50%
15IFK Varnamo16
19%
0.7
1734-17
3.2
69%
62%
50%
8.2
22%
2.9
22%
24.3
67%
5
2121.12.1
53%
16GIF Sundsvall17
18%
0.5
1341-28
3.2
76%
71%
41%
9.8
67%
2.6
22%
20.5
50%
4
1120.82.4
41%
Sweden: Superettan 2026-27 full table · IK brage and Orebro SK highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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