PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 03/08/2026
FCSB
FCSB
Vs
57%
26%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
Romania: Liga I
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCSB win
57.3%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.74
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Dafabet
1.76
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.61
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Farul Constanta win
17.1%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.26
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Dafabet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCSBFCSB

Avg scored 2.00
Avg conceded 1.00
Avg total 3.00
40-4avg 2.0avg 1.0avg total 3.040323101000243212020H·OŢEA·FARH·PETA·CSIH·UNIA·AFCH·FC A·DINH·ARGA·CSI
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.271.881.121.571.43
vs Stronger (1)4.003.004.003.00--
vs Similar (11)0.911.551.171.500.601.60
vs Weaker (18)2.111.002.110.672.111.33
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Farul Constanta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Farul ConstantaFarul Constanta

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 1.50
Avg total 2.70
30-3avg 1.2avg 1.5avg total 2.701230011230133111220A·AFCH·FCSA·UTAH·FC A·OŢEH·META·CHIH·CHIA·UNIH·COR
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.231.621.121.001.36
vs Stronger (12)1.421.422.001.860.600.80
vs Similar (16)1.381.061.500.501.251.62
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FCSB) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.23-1.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.78+1.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Pinnacle
3.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.78-4.8%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.99+4.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
SBO
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.2%
@ 2.90-5.9%
Under 3.5
73.8%
@ 1.37+5.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
2.96
10Bet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
Under
Superbet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
48.4%
@ 1.72-5.5%
No
51.6%
@ 2.01+5.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Unibet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
No
Superbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Betfair
2.05
BetVictor
2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.67+5.5%
1-0
11.9%@ 7.17+5.7%
2-0
11.3%@ 8.29+5.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.56+3.8%
0-0
8.6%@ 11.18+4.6%
3-0
6.6%@ 13.02+3.1%
3-1
5.6%@ 12.52+2.0%
0-1
5.3%@ 12.15+1.6%
FCSB goals ↓
Farul Constanta goals →
01234
08.6%5.3%2.7%0.8%0.2%
112%12%4.7%1.3%0.3%
211%9.7%4.1%1.2%0.3%
36.6%5.6%2.4%0.7%0.1%
42.9%2.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCSB goals (down), columns = Farul Constanta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FCSB
3.00
Universitatea Craiova
2.00
Rapid
2.00
Arges Pitesti
2.00
Oţelul
1.67
Universitatea Cluj
1.50
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.50
Farul Constanta
1.50
FC Voluntari
1.33
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.33
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.33
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.33
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.00
FC Botosani
1.00
Uta Arad
0.33
Csikszereda
0.00
FCSB is 1.50 points better than Farul Constanta in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Universitatea Craiova
3.00
CFR 1907 Cluj
3.00
FCSB
2.00
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.00
Oţelul
1.67
FC Botosani
1.50
Farul Constanta
1.50
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.33
Universitatea Cluj
1.00
FC Voluntari
1.00
Rapid
1.00
Uta Arad
0.67
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.67
Arges Pitesti
0.67
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.33
Csikszereda
0.00
FCSB is 0.50 goals better than Farul Constanta in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FCSB
0.00
Rapid
0.50
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.67
Arges Pitesti
0.67
Universitatea Cluj
1.00
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.00
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.00
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.00
Farul Constanta
1.00
Oţelul
1.33
FC Botosani
1.50
Universitatea Craiova
1.67
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.67
Csikszereda
2.00
Uta Arad
2.33
FC Voluntari
2.33
FCSB is 1.00 goals better than Farul Constanta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
CFR 1907 Cluj
62%
Universitatea Craiova
60%
Farul Constanta
58%
Dinamo Bucuresti
55%
Rapid
54%
FC Botosani
54%
Uta Arad
52%
Universitatea Cluj
49%
Csikszereda
48%
Corvinul Hunedoara
47%
Arges Pitesti
47%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
46%
Oţelul
45%
FCSB
45%
Petrolul Ploiesti
44%
FC Voluntari
39%
FCSB is 13.0 percentage points worse than Farul Constanta in terms of average possession (45% vs 58%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FCSBFCSB

For 7.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

18083752211544911447644631112416810181389A·CSIH·ARGA·DINH·FC A·AFCH·UNIA·CSIH·PETA·FARH·OŢE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

13023217644222424143253138466145A·CSIH·ARGA·DINH·FC A·AFCH·UNIA·CSIH·PETA·FARH·OŢE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.7

⚠️ Fouls

3801116916181720181412810815101971418727253538261823292125A·CSIH·ARGA·DINH·FC A·AFCH·UNIA·CSIH·PETA·FARH·OŢE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Farul ConstantaFarul Constanta

For 7.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

17064421215263623844861121061217981181413H·CORA·UNIH·CHIH·META·OŢEH·FC A·UTAH·FCSA·AFCH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

80233144144423214245485853424H·CORA·UNIH·CHIH·META·OŢEH·FC A·UTAH·FCSA·AFCH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.4

⚠️ Fouls

320911128978101517119911147141241720201618322020212621H·CORA·UNIH·CHIH·META·OŢEH·FC A·UTAH·FCSA·AFCH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FCSBFCSB

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.311.09.64.94.75.124.524.924.2
vs Stronger (1)7.07.0-3.03.0-18.018.0-
vs Similar (21)10.911.610.15.55.55.525.526.124.9
vs Weaker (28)10.010.89.24.54.24.924.024.423.6
% over line55%60%50%72%64%80%71%72%71%
% under line45%40%50%28%36%20%29%28%29%
This opponent (Farul Constanta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Farul ConstantaFarul Constanta

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (43)10.29.710.74.04.04.023.421.925.1
vs Stronger (19)9.78.710.63.83.93.722.923.922.1
vs Similar (21)10.210.110.24.14.24.124.020.428.4
vs Weaker (3)13.712.516.04.33.56.022.721.525.0
% over line52%45%60%56%64%48%50%36%65%
% under line48%55%40%44%36%52%50%64%35%
This opponent (FCSB) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
FCSB
10.3
Farul Constanta
10.2
Rapid
9.9
Universitatea Cluj
9.7
FC Botosani
9.6
Petrolul Ploiesti
9.5
Uta Arad
9.5
Arges Pitesti
9.5
Oţelul
9.5
Dinamo Bucuresti
9.4
Universitatea Craiova
9.1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
9.0
Csikszereda
8.9
CFR 1907 Cluj
8.7
FC Voluntari
8.4
Corvinul Hunedoara
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Universitatea Craiova
5.0
FC Botosani
5.0
FCSB
4.9
Arges Pitesti
4.9
FC Voluntari
4.8
Uta Arad
4.7
Rapid
4.7
Dinamo Bucuresti
4.6
Petrolul Ploiesti
4.6
Csikszereda
4.4
Farul Constanta
4.3
Oţelul
4.3
Corvinul Hunedoara
4.2
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
4.0
CFR 1907 Cluj
3.9
Universitatea Cluj
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Oţelul
27.0
FC Botosani
26.5
Petrolul Ploiesti
26.0
Arges Pitesti
25.6
Corvinul Hunedoara
24.7
Universitatea Craiova
24.6
Csikszereda
24.6
FCSB
24.5
Uta Arad
24.1
Rapid
24.0
Dinamo Bucuresti
23.8
Farul Constanta
23.4
CFR 1907 Cluj
22.6
FC Voluntari
21.6
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
21.3
Universitatea Cluj
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.9%
@ 1.69+10.1%
Under 9.5
35.1%
@ 2.04-10.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.41-2.6%
Under 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.55+2.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Superbet
1.41
Under
Superbet
2.55
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.2%
Under 21.5
27.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.574.2%1.23
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
-1.2%
Under 3.573.8%1.37
Superbet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
+5.9%
Over 21.5 fouls72.2%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (45)
€40m
UC (34)
€37m
FCS (31)
€34m
RAP (24)
€25m
UC (33)
€19m
FB (31)
€12m
UA (30)
€12m
PP (40)
€12m
OŢE (28)
€10m
FC (32)
€10m
CSI (42)
€9m
FCSB's squad is €24m more valuable than Farul Constanta's (€34m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (18)
€18m
UC (13)
€15m
FCS (8)
€14m
RAP (10)
€10m
UC (11)
€8m
FB (11)
€6m
FC (11)
€4m
UA (11)
€4m
OŢE (12)
€4m
PP (13)
€4m
CSI (16)
€3m
FCSB's attack is €10m more valuable than Farul Constanta's (€14m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (6)
€9m
FCS (8)
€8m
C1C (7)
€5m
UC (8)
€5m
RAP (6)
€4m
PP (11)
€4m
UA (8)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
FB (7)
€2m
FC (7)
€2m
OŢE (4)
€2m
FCSB's midfield is €6m more valuable than Farul Constanta's (€8m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
C1C (20)
€17m
UC (15)
€13m
FCS (15)
€11m
RAP (8)
€10m
UC (14)
€7m
PP (16)
€5m
UA (11)
€5m
OŢE (12)
€4m
FB (13)
€4m
CSI (17)
€4m
FC (14)
€4m
FCSB's defence is €8m more valuable than Farul Constanta's (€11m vs €4m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

FCSB vs Farul Constanta · H/A from FCS
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/26AFarul Constanta Vs FCS2-3
30/11/25AFarul Constanta Vs FCS1-2
26/07/25HFCS Vs Farul Constanta1-2

FCSBFCSB

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26ACsikszereda Vs FCS0-2
17/07/26HFCS Vs Arges Pitesti2-0
29/05/26ADinamo Bucuresti Vs FCS1-2
24/05/26HFCS Vs FC Botosani4-3
18/05/26AAFC Hermannstadt Vs FCS2-0
11/05/26HFCS Vs Unirea Slobozia0-0
01/05/26ACsikszereda Vs FCS1-0
24/04/26HFCS Vs Petrolul Ploiesti3-1
20/04/26AFarul Constanta Vs FCS2-3
11/04/26HFCS Vs Oţelul4-0

Farul ConstantaFarul Constanta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HFC Vs Corvinul Hunedoara2-0
19/07/26AUniversitatea Cluj Vs FC2-1
31/05/26HFC Vs Chindia Targoviste1-1
23/05/26AChindia Targoviste Vs FC3-3
18/05/26HFC Vs Metaloglobus0-1
09/05/26AOţelul Vs FC3-2
02/05/26HFC Vs FC Botosani1-1
26/04/26AUta Arad Vs FC0-0
20/04/26HFC Vs FCSB2-3
10/04/26AAFC Hermannstadt Vs FC1-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

FCSB
FCSB
Romania: Liga I
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.64
HomeWWDWW1.88
AwayWLLWW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals2.942.683.20
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Scored1.641.641.64
Conceded1.301.041.56
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet30%44%16%
Failed to Score22%24%20%
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
Romania: Liga I
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.12
HomeLDLDW1.50
AwayLDLDL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%41%14%
AVG goals2.512.642.38
Over 2.5 %44%45%43%
Scored1.261.550.95
Conceded1.261.091.43
BTTS60%64%57%
Clean Sheet19%23%14%
Failed to Score26%18%33%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Universitatea Craiova3
67%
2.0
95+4
4.7
100%
100%
100%
7.0
0%
3.7
67%
21.0
33%
37
159133.01.7
60%
2FCSB2
100%
3.0
40+4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
11.5
100%
4.0
50%
26.0
100%
34
148112.00.0
45%
3Arges Pitesti3
67%
2.0
22+0
1.3
33%
0%
0%
9.0
67%
7.0
67%
29.0
100%
0
0000.70.7
47%
4Oţelul3
33%
1.7
54+1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
9.3
67%
3.0
33%
27.3
67%
10
4241.71.3
45%
5Dinamo Bucuresti3
33%
1.3
63+3
3.0
67%
33%
33%
8.3
0%
4.7
67%
23.7
67%
0
0002.01.0
55%
6Corvinul Hunedoara3
33%
1.3
43+1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
7.0
33%
4.0
50%
24.7
67%
0
0001.31.0
47%
7Rapid2
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
11.5
50%
9.0
100%
24.5
50%
25
104101.00.5
54%
8Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe3
33%
1.3
22+0
1.3
33%
0%
0%
9.0
33%
4.0
33%
21.3
33%
0
0000.70.7
46%
9FC Voluntari3
33%
1.3
37-4
3.3
67%
67%
67%
7.0
33%
3.0
50%
22.0
67%
0
0001.02.3
39%
10CFR 1907 Cluj2
50%
1.5
62+4
4.0
100%
100%
50%
10.0
100%
1.5
0%
20.5
50%
40
185173.01.0
62%
11Farul Constanta2
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
8.0
50%
4.5
100%
20.0
0%
10
4241.51.0
58%
12Universitatea Cluj2
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
7.0
0%
3.5
50%
20.0
0%
19
8571.01.0
49%
13Petrolul Ploiesti3
33%
1.0
15-4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
8.3
33%
7.0
67%
27.0
100%
12
4450.31.7
44%
14FC Botosani2
0%
1.0
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
7.5
0%
12.0
100%
24.0
50%
12
6241.51.5
54%
15Uta Arad3
0%
0.3
27-5
3.0
67%
67%
67%
7.3
33%
4.3
100%
25.7
67%
12
4350.72.3
52%
16Csikszereda3
0%
0.0
06-6
2.0
67%
33%
0%
7.3
33%
6.0
100%
28.3
100%
9
3340.02.0
48%
Romania: Liga I 2026-27 full table · FCSB and Farul Constanta highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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