PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
Dynamo
Dynamo
Vs
55%
26%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Russia: Premier League
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dynamo win
54.8%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.69
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.66
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.75
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
3.81
Pinnacle
3.73
Marathonbet
3.72
Dinamo Makhachkala win
18.8%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.54
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
5.68
Marathonbet
5.55
Pinnacle
5.38

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DynamoDynamo

Avg scored 1.50
Avg conceded 1.20
Avg total 2.70
30-3avg 1.5avg 1.2avg total 2.733321101201121210012H·FC A·AKRA·NIZH·RUBH·FC A·LOKH·FC A·BALH·KRYA·BAL
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.371.931.571.441.19
vs Stronger (8)1.501.751.502.251.501.25
vs Similar (6)1.171.671.503.001.001.00
vs Weaker (16)1.941.062.250.881.621.25
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Makhachkala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala

Avg scored 1.10
Avg conceded 0.90
Avg total 2.00
20-2avg 1.1avg 0.9avg total 2.001111212110010202121H·ZENA·AKRA·FC H·FC A·AKHH·SPAA·URAH·URAA·FAKH·LOK
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.200.930.800.601.60
vs Stronger (16)0.691.560.891.000.432.29
vs Similar (7)1.001.001.330.670.751.25
vs Weaker (7)0.710.570.670.330.750.75
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.33+4.2%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 3.07-4.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.13+2.4%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.76-2.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
@ 3.72+1.1%
Under 3.5
74.0%
@ 1.23-1.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.80
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
49.4%
@ 2.00+3.0%
No
50.6%
@ 1.73-3.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
No
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.55+6.0%
1-0
11.6%@ 5.55+3.9%
2-0
10.7%@ 6.72+4.4%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.10+4.3%
0-0
8.7%@ 8.70+3.8%
3-0
6.0%@ 11.75+2.4%
0-1
5.6%@ 11.62+2.0%
3-1
5.4%@ 14.25+2.4%
Dynamo goals ↓
Dinamo Makhachkala goals →
01234
08.7%5.6%3.0%0.9%0.2%
112%13%5.1%1.5%0.3%
211%9.6%4.3%1.3%0.3%
36.0%5.4%2.4%0.7%0.2%
42.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dynamo goals (down), columns = Dinamo Makhachkala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Makhachkala
3.00
Spartak Moscow
3.00
Zenit
3.00
FC Krasnodar
3.00
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Baltika
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.50
Dynamo
0.50
Fakel
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Akron
0.00
Dynamo is 2.50 points worse than Dinamo Makhachkala in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 3.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zenit
4.00
Spartak Moscow
3.00
FC Krasnodar
3.00
FC Rostov
2.50
Dinamo Makhachkala
2.00
Baltika
1.50
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Fakel
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Lokomotiv
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.00
Rodina Moskva
1.00
Krylia Sovetov
0.50
Dynamo
0.50
Akron
0.50
Dynamo is 1.50 goals worse than Dinamo Makhachkala in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Moscow
0.00
Zenit
0.00
Krylia Sovetov
0.50
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Dynamo
1.00
Baltika
1.50
Lokomotiv
1.50
FC Krasnodar
1.50
FC Orenburg
2.00
FC Rostov
2.00
Rubin
2.00
Fakel
2.50
Rodina Moskva
3.50
Akron
3.50
Dynamo and Dinamo Makhachkala are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Dynamo
69%
FC Krasnodar
64%
CSKA Moscow
60%
Spartak Moscow
60%
Zenit
58%
Akron
58%
FC Rostov
55%
Lokomotiv
53%
Akhmat
53%
Fakel
50%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
42%
Krylia Sovetov
39%
FC Orenburg
36%
Baltika
32%
Rubin
32%
Dynamo is 27.0 percentage points better than Dinamo Makhachkala in terms of average possession (69% vs 42%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DynamoDynamo

For 5.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.2

🚩 Corners

1508262252656558712287311087811101514154A·BALH·KRYA·BALH·FC A·LOKH·FC H·RUBA·NIZA·AKRH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

702343122231116112412744527261A·BALA·BALH·FC A·LOKH·FC H·RUBA·NIZA·AKRH·FC H·ZEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 16.6 · Total 27.8

⚠️ Fouls

340101515148241618111912131418101591371725293234302532252224A·BALH·KRYA·BALH·FC A·LOKH·FC H·RUBA·NIZA·AKRH·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala

For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

1201928424734643148555710106117104121012H·LOKA·FAKH·URAA·URAH·SPAA·AKHH·FC A·FC A·AKRH·ZEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

80121142143214531213153725813H·LOKA·FAKH·URAA·URAH·SPAA·AKHH·FC A·FC A·AKRH·ZEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.3

⚠️ Fouls

3609111016131411111216201214221215131619720262722283236272926H·LOKA·FAKH·URAA·URAH·SPAA·AKHH·FC A·FC A·AKRH·ZEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DynamoDynamo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (32)10.09.110.84.33.74.927.327.527.2
vs Stronger (8)9.08.010.04.53.55.529.830.229.2
vs Similar (7)10.612.79.04.33.05.229.429.729.2
vs Weaker (17)10.28.412.14.24.04.525.425.625.1
% over line53%38%69%69%69%69%97%100%94%
% under line47%62%31%31%31%31%3%0%6%
This opponent (Dinamo Makhachkala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (34)8.98.29.54.14.73.628.829.528.1
vs Stronger (17)8.68.39.04.24.04.526.727.126.2
vs Similar (10)8.98.09.84.25.43.032.832.633.0
vs Weaker (7)9.38.310.03.95.72.528.131.325.8
% over line50%41%59%53%65%41%91%88%94%
% under line50%59%41%47%35%59%9%12%6%
This opponent (Dynamo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
13.5
CSKA Moscow
10.8
Dynamo
10.0
FC Orenburg
9.8
Zenit
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.3
Spartak Moscow
8.9
Akhmat
8.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Lokomotiv
8.8
Akron
8.8
FC Krasnodar
8.4
FC Rostov
8.4
Rubin
8.0
Fakel
8.0
Baltika
7.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Baltika
5.5
FC Rostov
5.3
Spartak Moscow
5.2
FC Krasnodar
5.1
Rubin
4.7
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Zenit
4.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.1
Akron
3.7
Rodina Moskva
3.0
Fakel
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Spartak Moscow
30.6
Baltika
30.6
Rodina Moskva
30.0
FC Rostov
29.6
Rubin
29.3
FC Orenburg
29.0
Akhmat
28.8
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.8
FC Krasnodar
28.6
Krylia Sovetov
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Dynamo
27.3
Zenit
27.1
CSKA Moscow
26.9
Akron
26.6
Fakel
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.1%
Under 21.5
12.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 21.5 fouls87.1%-------
Over 1.574.0%1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
--+4.2%
Under 3.574.0%1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
---1.1%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (35)
€204m
CM (35)
€137m
FK (31)
€125m
SM (26)
€119m
LOK (28)
€111m
DYN (33)
€111m
RUB (32)
€53m
FR (33)
€37m
BAL (34)
€36m
KS (32)
€32m
AKH (31)
€32m
AKR (31)
€30m
FO (42)
€25m
DM (30)
€23m
Dynamo's squad is €88m more valuable than Dinamo Makhachkala's (€111m vs €23m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (11)
€109m
FK (15)
€64m
SM (11)
€58m
LOK (9)
€53m
DYN (10)
€46m
CM (16)
€41m
RUB (10)
€18m
FR (14)
€17m
AKH (10)
€16m
KS (13)
€13m
AKR (11)
€11m
FO (15)
€10m
BAL (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€6m
Dynamo's attack is €40m more valuable than Dinamo Makhachkala's (€46m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (7)
€52m
ZEN (6)
€44m
SM (4)
€29m
DYN (6)
€23m
FK (4)
€20m
LOK (7)
€18m
RUB (9)
€13m
BAL (10)
€13m
KS (6)
€8m
AKR (6)
€8m
FO (10)
€6m
DM (4)
€3m
AKH (6)
€3m
FR (4)
€3m
Dynamo's midfield is €19m more valuable than Dinamo Makhachkala's (€23m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (18)
€51m
CM (12)
€44m
DYN (17)
€41m
FK (12)
€41m
LOK (12)
€41m
SM (11)
€32m
RUB (13)
€22m
FR (15)
€17m
BAL (14)
€16m
DM (15)
€13m
AKH (15)
€13m
KS (13)
€11m
AKR (14)
€11m
FO (17)
€9m
Dynamo's defence is €28m more valuable than Dinamo Makhachkala's (€41m vs €13m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala · H/A from DYN
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25HDYN Vs Dinamo Makhachkala3-0
31/08/25ADinamo Makhachkala Vs DYN1-0

DynamoDynamo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26ABaltika Vs DYN2-1
25/07/26HDYN Vs Krylia Sovetov0-0
17/05/26ABaltika Vs DYN1-2
11/05/26HDYN Vs FC Krasnodar2-1
01/05/26ALokomotiv Vs DYN1-1
26/04/26HDYN Vs FC Sochi2-0
22/04/26HDYN Vs Rubin0-1
18/04/26ANizhny Novgorod Vs DYN1-1
13/04/26AAkron Vs DYN2-3
04/04/26HDYN Vs FC Orenburg3-3

Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HDM Vs Lokomotiv2-1
25/07/26AFakel Vs DM1-2
23/05/26HDM Vs Ural2-0
20/05/26AUral Vs DM0-1
17/05/26HDM Vs Spartak Moscow0-0
10/05/26AAkhmat Vs DM1-1
02/05/26HDM Vs FC Rostov1-2
26/04/26AFC Krasnodar Vs DM2-1
23/04/26AAkron Vs DM1-1
19/04/26HDM Vs Zenit0-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Dynamo
Dynamo
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.44
HomeDLWWD1.44
AwayWDDWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.943.252.62
Over 2.5 %59%69%50%
Scored1.621.811.44
Conceded1.311.441.19
BTTS66%56%75%
Clean Sheet25%38%12%
Failed to Score16%12%19%
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.12
HomeLLDWW1.53
AwayDLDWW0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%41%12%
AVG goals1.911.712.12
Over 2.5 %26%24%29%
Scored0.760.940.59
Conceded1.150.761.53
BTTS41%35%47%
Clean Sheet26%41%12%
Failed to Score41%35%47%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Zenit2
100%
3.0
80+8
4.0
100%
100%
50%
10.5
50%
4.5
100%
24.5
50%
204
10944514.00.0
58%
2FC Krasnodar2
100%
3.0
63+3
4.5
100%
100%
100%
6.0
0%
4.5
100%
26.5
50%
125
6420413.01.5
64%
3Dinamo Makhachkala2
100%
3.0
42+2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
2.0
0%
23.0
50%
23
63132.01.0
42%
4CSKA Moscow2
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
7.5
0%
2.5
0%
30.5
100%
137
4152441.51.0
60%
5Spartak Moscow1
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
16.0
100%
3.0
0%
25.0
100%
119
5829323.00.0
60%
6FC Rostov2
50%
1.5
54+1
4.5
100%
100%
50%
10.0
50%
6.5
50%
32.0
100%
37
173172.52.0
55%
7Baltika2
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.0
50%
2.0
0%
26.5
100%
36
813161.51.5
32%
8Rubin2
50%
1.5
34-1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
7.0
0%
4.0
50%
25.5
50%
53
1813221.52.0
32%
9FC Orenburg2
50%
1.5
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
7.0
100%
29.0
100%
25
10691.02.0
36%
10Krylia Sovetov2
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
7.5
0%
3.0
0%
31.0
100%
32
138110.50.5
39%
11Akhmat1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
3.0
0%
29.0
100%
32
163131.01.0
53%
12Lokomotiv2
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
8.5
50%
3.0
0%
24.5
50%
111
5318411.01.5
53%
13Dynamo2
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
9.0
50%
2.0
0%
27.0
100%
111
4623410.51.0
69%
14Fakel2
0%
0.0
35-2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
8.0
50%
2.5
50%
23.5
50%
0
0001.52.5
50%
15Rodina Moskva2
0%
0.0
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
50%
13.5
100%
3.0
0%
30.0
100%
0
0001.03.5
44%
16Akron2
0%
0.0
17-6
4.0
100%
100%
50%
11.0
50%
4.0
50%
19.5
0%
30
118110.53.5
58%
Russia: Premier League 2026-27 full table · Dynamo and Dinamo Makhachkala highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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