This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Avg scored0.40
Avg conceded2.60
Avg total3.00
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.07
1.00
1.62
0.86
2.57
vs Stronger (28)
0.89
2.04
1.00
1.62
0.75
2.58
vs Similar (2)
1.50
2.50
-
-
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
@ 1.11+3.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
@ 5.42-3.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
888Sport
6.00
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.30
Unibet
4.90
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.5%
@ 1.41+1.3%
Under 2.5
33.5%
@ 2.64-1.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.42
888Sport
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
888Sport
2.80
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Unibet
2.48
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
@ 2.09-0.1%
Under 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.69+0.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
888Sport
1.70
Unibet
1.60
Both teams to score
Yes
40.6%
@ 1.71-13.4%
No
59.4%
@ 2.01+13.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Unibet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
888Sport
1.70
No
888Sport
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Unibet
1.96
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.5%@ 6.92+7.3%
3-0
12.9%@ 8.01+7.5%
4-0
9.2%@ 11.83+5.6%
1-0
8.9%@ 8.38+3.7%
2-1
7.5%@ 7.58+1.8%
3-1
7.1%@ 9.04+2.4%
1-1
5.7%@ 9.70+1.3%
5-0
5.3%@ 21.50+3.3%
Ilves goals ↓
Mariehamn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.9%
5.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
2
13%
7.5%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
3
13%
7.1%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
9.2%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilves goals (down), columns = Mariehamn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.17
Inter Turku
1.89
AC Oulu
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Gnistan
1.56
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.39
Turku PS
1.39
Ilves
1.22
FF Jaro
0.83
SJK
0.82
Mariehamn
0.28
Ilves is 0.94 points better than Mariehamn in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 0.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.83
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Ilves
1.61
Gnistan
1.50
Inter Turku
1.39
VPS
1.33
Turku PS
1.28
Lahti
1.22
AC Oulu
1.22
SJK
1.12
FF Jaro
0.94
Mariehamn
0.50
Ilves is 1.11 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.78
Lahti
0.89
KuPS
0.89
VPS
0.94
Turku PS
1.11
AC Oulu
1.17
HJK Helsinki
1.18
Gnistan
1.22
SJK
1.59
Ilves
1.72
FF Jaro
1.94
Mariehamn
2.17
Ilves is 0.44 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Ilves is 4.8 percentage points better than Mariehamn in terms of average possession (49% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ilves
For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
18.9
18.8
19.0
vs Stronger (18)
9.6
9.0
10.2
1.5
1.7
1.3
18.9
18.0
20.0
vs Similar (13)
10.3
11.0
10.0
1.8
1.6
2.0
18.3
16.0
19.5
vs Weaker (19)
12.0
13.7
10.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
19.4
22.0
17.5
% over line
55%
40%
67%
24%
21%
27%
45%
50%
42%
% under line
45%
60%
33%
76%
79%
73%
55%
50%
58%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
10.5
11.2
9.3
1.6
2.0
1.2
20.3
20.6
19.8
vs Stronger (41)
10.6
11.2
9.4
1.7
2.1
1.2
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (4)
9.0
-
9.0
0.8
0.0
1.0
18.5
-
18.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
77%
56%
27%
35%
18%
52%
50%
56%
% under line
32%
23%
44%
73%
65%
82%
48%
50%
44%
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.4
Inter Turku
10.7
Ilves
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
SJK
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
KuPS
9.5
VPS
8.8
Turku PS
8.4
Lahti
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Lahti
3.8
Ilves
3.4
VPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
Mariehamn
3.1
HJK Helsinki
2.8
KuPS
2.8
Inter Turku
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AC Oulu
22.7
Lahti
22.6
Gnistan
22.6
VPS
22.3
Turku PS
21.8
Mariehamn
20.3
Inter Turku
19.6
KuPS
19.4
SJK
19.2
Ilves
18.9
FF Jaro
18.4
HJK Helsinki
16.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.3%
@ 1.49-17.2%
Under 9.5
55.7%
@ 2.38+17.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.38
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
35.0%
Under 21.5
65.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.1%
Home win
83.9%
1.29
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
+12.4%
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Ilves's squad is €2m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and Mariehamn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
Ilves and Mariehamn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves's defence is €1m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€2m vs €1m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Ilves vs Mariehamn · H/A from ILV
Date
H/A
Game
Score
18/04/26
A
Mariehamn Vs ILV
2-2
31/08/25
H
ILV Vs Mariehamn
2-1
27/04/25
A
Mariehamn Vs ILV
3-2
Ilves
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
02/08/26
A
AC Oulu Vs ILV
1-0
26/07/26
H
ILV Vs Lahti
1-0
20/07/26
A
Turku PS Vs ILV
1-3
04/07/26
A
FF Jaro Vs ILV
2-1
27/06/26
H
ILV Vs SJK
2-2
23/06/26
A
KuPS Vs ILV
4-3
17/06/26
H
ILV Vs FF Jaro
5-0
13/06/26
H
ILV Vs Turku PS
1-0
30/05/26
A
Lahti Vs ILV
5-0
23/05/26
H
ILV Vs Gnistan
2-0
Mariehamn
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
01/08/26
A
Turku PS Vs MAR
3-0
25/07/26
H
MAR Vs AC Oulu
1-1
20/07/26
H
MAR Vs Lahti
0-2
11/07/26
A
Gnistan Vs MAR
4-2
04/07/26
A
VPS Vs MAR
4-0
27/06/26
H
MAR Vs Inter Turku
0-2
23/06/26
H
MAR Vs HJK Helsinki
0-4
18/06/26
A
AC Oulu Vs MAR
2-1
13/06/26
H
MAR Vs Gnistan
0-3
30/05/26
A
HJK Helsinki Vs MAR
1-0
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Ilves
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DLWWL
1.54
Home
WWWDW
2.00
Away
LLLWL
1.12
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
44%
58%
31%
AVG goals
3.46
3.25
3.65
Over 2.5 %
70%
67%
73%
Scored
1.78
1.96
1.62
Conceded
1.68
1.29
2.04
BTTS
60%
62%
58%
Clean Sheet
28%
38%
19%
Failed to Score
16%
8%
23%
Mariehamn
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LLLDL
0.82
Home
LLLLD
0.96
Away
LLLLL
0.68
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
18%
22%
14%
AVG goals
3.00
2.91
3.09
Over 2.5 %
51%
48%
55%
Scored
0.96
1.04
0.86
Conceded
2.04
1.87
2.23
BTTS
53%
52%
55%
Clean Sheet
13%
13%
14%
Failed to Score
36%
35%
36%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
1
KuPS
18
61%
2.2
33
16
+17
2.7
83%
44%
28%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0
0
0
1.8
0.9
57%
2
Inter Turku
18
50%
1.9
25
14
+11
2.2
72%
33%
17%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2
1
2
1.4
0.8
58%
3
AC Oulu
18
50%
1.7
22
21
+1
2.4
61%
39%
17%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1
1
1
1.2
1.2
48%
4
HJK Helsinki
17
47%
1.6
28
20
+8
2.8
71%
53%
29%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2
1
3
1.6
1.2
55%
5
Gnistan
18
44%
1.6
27
22
+5
2.7
78%
39%
22%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1
1
1
1.5
1.2
44%
6
VPS
18
39%
1.5
24
17
+7
2.3
61%
39%
22%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0
0
0
1.3
0.9
48%
7
Lahti
18
39%
1.4
22
16
+6
2.1
67%
28%
11%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1
0
1
1.2
0.9
56%
8
Turku PS
18
39%
1.4
23
20
+3
2.4
67%
50%
22%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0
0
0
1.3
1.1
50%
9
Ilves
18
33%
1.2
29
31
-2
3.3
78%
67%
56%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1
1
2
1.6
1.7
49%
10
FF Jaro
18
17%
0.8
17
35
-18
2.9
83%
56%
28%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1
1
1
0.9
1.9
47%
11
SJK
17
18%
0.8
19
27
-8
2.7
82%
53%
29%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1
1
2
1.1
1.6
50%
12
Mariehamn
18
0%
0.3
9
39
-30
2.7
83%
50%
22%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1
1
1
0.5
2.2
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026-27 full table · Ilves and Mariehamn highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia · model switchable per page
