PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 07/08/2026
Galway United
Galway United
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Drogheda United
Drogheda United
Ireland: Premier Division
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Galway United win
44.6%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.07
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
Unibet
1.88
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.54
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Drogheda United win
29.9%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.28
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.15
1xBet
3.13
Marathonbet
3.12

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Galway UnitedGalway United

Avg scored 1.40
Avg conceded 1.90
Avg total 3.30
40-4avg 1.4avg 1.9avg total 3.313412411012113033200H·SHAA·SLIH·BOHA·SHEH·DUNH·DERA·SHAA·ST H·SLIH·WAT
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.471.501.441.001.50
vs Stronger (15)1.001.671.831.830.441.56
vs Similar (15)1.531.271.301.202.001.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United

Avg scored 1.10
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 2.80
30-3avg 1.1avg 1.7avg total 2.812113302220202212200A·WATH·DUNH·WATA·ST H·SHEA·DERH·BOHA·DUNA·SLIH·SHA
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.671.071.331.202.00
vs Stronger (10)0.502.100.331.500.753.00
vs Similar (20)1.451.451.561.221.361.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.21+7.3%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 3.81-7.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.62
1xBet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.74+6.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
@ 2.03-6.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Under
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 2.75+5.1%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.38-5.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
Unibet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
63.2%
@ 1.60+5.7%
No
36.8%
@ 2.16-5.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
No
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.12

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.42+5.2%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.66+3.8%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.65+3.1%
2-0
6.6%@ 9.65+2.3%
1-0
6.5%@ 7.93+1.3%
2-2
6.4%@ 11.00+2.7%
0-0
5.4%@ 10.90+1.6%
3-1
5.3%@ 13.10+2.2%
Galway United goals ↓
Drogheda United goals →
01234
05.4%5.0%4.2%2.0%0.7%
16.5%12%7.4%3.4%1.2%
26.6%9.2%6.4%3.0%1.0%
33.8%5.3%3.7%1.7%0.6%
41.7%2.3%1.6%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Galway United goals (down), columns = Drogheda United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
Bohemians
1.72
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Dundalk
1.42
Shelbourne
1.36
Galway United
1.17
Derry City
1.15
Drogheda United
1.04
Waterford
0.96
Sligo Rovers
0.85
Galway United is 0.13 points better than Drogheda United in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.60
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Dundalk
1.54
Shamrock Rovers
1.54
Shelbourne
1.40
Galway United
1.33
Waterford
1.31
Derry City
1.27
Drogheda United
1.19
Sligo Rovers
0.88
Galway United is 0.14 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.85
St Patrick's Athl.
0.85
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.23
Shelbourne
1.44
Dundalk
1.46
Galway United
1.62
Sligo Rovers
1.65
Drogheda United
1.65
Waterford
1.81
Galway United is 0.03 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.65).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
57%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
55%
Shelbourne
52%
Dundalk
51%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Galway United is 0.5 percentage points worse than Drogheda United in terms of average possession (40% vs 40%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Galway UnitedGalway United

For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

1505563852696454695418106117151091599H·WATH·SLIA·ST A·SHAH·DUNA·SHEH·BOHA·SLIH·SHAA·DER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

80351521212224122218621342543H·WATH·SLIA·ST A·SHAH·DUNA·SHEH·BOHA·SLIH·SHAA·DER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.2

⚠️ Fouls

280101711131869814111011141411878111127242417252128191522H·WATH·SLIA·ST A·SHAH·DUNA·SHEH·BOHA·SLIH·SHAA·DER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United

For 4.5 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.3

🚩 Corners

17027945106257512264344313913158121787816H·SHAA·SLIA·DUNH·BOHA·DERA·ST H·WATH·DUNA·WATA·BOH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

8032211113112534216235321438675H·SHAA·SLIA·DUNH·BOHA·DERA·ST H·WATH·DUNA·WATA·BOH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 14.1 · Total 24.3

⚠️ Fouls

290121312174135101312111581611151118151225291715252624262927H·SHAA·SLIA·DUNH·BOHA·DERA·ST H·WATH·DUNA·WATA·BOH
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Galway UnitedGalway United

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.810.14.44.64.222.923.622.2
vs Stronger (27)10.111.69.14.14.34.022.523.621.7
vs Similar (23)10.810.111.94.84.94.723.323.623.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line60%67%54%66%76%56%62%67%58%
% under line40%33%46%34%24%44%38%33%42%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.010.54.54.74.321.821.522.2
vs Stronger (17)9.48.99.94.44.93.921.521.721.4
vs Similar (33)10.710.610.84.54.64.522.021.422.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line45%42%48%64%76%52%59%54%64%
% under line55%58%52%36%24%48%41%46%36%
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Dundalk
11.0
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
9.9
Shelbourne
9.4
Derry City
9.3
Shamrock Rovers
8.4

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
St Patrick's Athl.
4.9
Bohemians
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.8
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
23.4
Derry City
23.2
Bohemians
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
23.0
Galway United
22.8
Waterford
22.6
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Drogheda United
21.7
Shelbourne
21.6
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.2%
@ 1.64+7.4%
Under 9.5
36.8%
@ 2.07-7.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.64
Under
Unibet
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.6%
Under 21.5
37.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.583.1%1.21
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-+7.3%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Galway United and Drogheda United have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Galway United and Drogheda United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Galway United and Drogheda United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Galway United and Drogheda United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Galway United vs Drogheda United · H/A from GU
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/26ADrogheda United Vs GU2-3
06/02/26HGU Vs Drogheda United0-1
24/10/25HGU Vs Drogheda United1-1
04/07/25ADrogheda United Vs GU1-0
25/04/25HGU Vs Drogheda United2-1
28/02/25ADrogheda United Vs GU1-1

Galway UnitedGalway United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HGU Vs Waterford0-0
11/07/26HGU Vs Sligo Rovers3-2
03/07/26ASt Patrick's Athl. Vs GU3-0
26/06/26AShamrock Rovers Vs GU3-1
19/06/26HGU Vs Derry City2-1
12/06/26HGU Vs Dundalk0-1
29/05/26AShelbourne Vs GU1-1
22/05/26HGU Vs Bohemians2-4
16/05/26ASligo Rovers Vs GU1-4
08/05/26HGU Vs Shamrock Rovers1-3

Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/26HDU Vs Shamrock Rovers0-0
25/07/26ASligo Rovers Vs DU2-2
10/07/26ADundalk Vs DU1-2
03/07/26HDU Vs Bohemians0-2
26/06/26ADerry City Vs DU2-0
19/06/26HDU Vs Shelbourne2-2
12/06/26ASt Patrick's Athl. Vs DU2-0
29/05/26HDU Vs Waterford3-3
22/05/26HDU Vs Dundalk1-1
18/05/26AWaterford Vs DU2-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Galway United
Galway United
Ireland: Premier Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.02
HomeLLWWD1.44
AwayDWDLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%40%8%
AVG goals2.542.882.20
Over 2.5 %46%60%32%
Scored1.101.440.76
Conceded1.441.441.44
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet10%16%4%
Failed to Score36%24%48%
Drogheda United
Drogheda United
Ireland: Premier Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.16
HomeDDDLD1.44
AwayLLLWD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.502.202.80
Over 2.5 %46%36%56%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded1.441.121.76
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet30%44%16%
Failed to Score26%24%28%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shamrock Rovers26
58%
2.0
4022+18
2.4
69%
42%
23%
8.4
16%
4.8
75%
22.7
56%
7
3221.50.8
63%
2St Patrick's Athl.26
46%
1.7
4122+19
2.4
73%
35%
31%
10.3
72%
4.7
71%
23.6
64%
5
2121.60.8
55%
3Bohemians25
48%
1.7
4027+13
2.7
76%
56%
32%
9.9
54%
4.2
58%
23.0
50%
0
0001.61.1
57%
4Dundalk26
35%
1.4
4038+2
3.0
88%
58%
35%
11.0
72%
5.1
68%
23.4
72%
3
0121.51.5
51%
5Shelbourne25
32%
1.4
3536-1
2.8
76%
64%
32%
9.6
50%
5.2
71%
20.9
54%
4
1121.41.4
52%
6Derry City26
23%
1.2
3332+1
2.5
69%
50%
27%
10.2
60%
5.2
76%
23.4
64%
4
1121.31.2
55%
7Galway United24
29%
1.2
3239-7
3.0
75%
54%
38%
10.7
61%
3.8
57%
23.0
65%
3
1111.31.6
40%
8Drogheda United26
23%
1.0
3143-12
2.8
77%
54%
35%
10.5
52%
4.5
68%
22.6
68%
3
1021.21.7
40%
9Waterford26
19%
1.0
3447-13
3.1
81%
46%
38%
11.5
60%
4.3
60%
23.0
64%
2
1111.31.8
39%
10Sligo Rovers26
19%
0.8
2343-20
2.5
73%
50%
31%
10.7
56%
4.1
52%
19.1
28%
3
1110.91.7
47%
Ireland: Premier Division 2026-27 full table · Galway United and Drogheda United highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

← all matches